The StratLab Weekly
No. 17 · Week ending Friday 12 Jun 2026 · NSE, data through close
Weekly Edition · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Market Health just moved from Bear Market to Transition.
NIFTY +2.20% to 23,631. A phase transition means the health engine's six-state read of market conditions changed today, not just the index price.
What happenedNIFTY +2.20% to 23,631. Market Health just moved from Bear Market to Transition.
The tensionMarket Health is Transition at High risk, 36th percentile.
Net readConditions broadly line up with the move.
Nifty Close
23,631.45
+2.20%
Market Phase
⚪ Transition
1 sessions · ↑ improving
FII Idx Fut
−243.6K
week-end
Walls
23.5–23.8K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
Market Health just moved from Bear Market to Transition.
Positioning over the last 12 weeks
FII net index futures · 12 weeks · '000 contracts · endpoint = 12 Jun · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: A phase transition means the health engine's six-state read of market conditions changed today, not just the index price.
02 The turn
What changed today
What this means: Bear Market → Transition · MHI 25.8 → 56.6
03 The catch
Market Health reads Transition
Market health over the last 12 weeks
Market Health Index · 12 weeks · 0–100 · endpoint = 12 Jun · percentiles vs 1,218 sessions
What this means: the internals broadly agree with today's move.
Adv / Decl days
2 / 3
of the week
Week range
23,123–23,631
close-to-close
StratLab Breadth Index
31.7 to 50.1
Monday to Friday
04 Days like today
52 sessions like this one.
Every session sharing today's Market Health signature — transition, High risk — 52 of them on record.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 52 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | +0.24% | +0.08% | 54% | −0.93% |
| Next 5 sessions | +0.92% | +0.82% | 71% | −2.81% |
| Next 10 sessions | +0.75% | +1.12% | 56% | −3.63% |
| Next 20 sessions | +0.31% | −0.21% | 43% | −8.18% |
This compares today against every session sharing the same Market Health signature, regardless of what triggered it.
Conditions like today historically favored staying with the move.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Market Phase exits upward
Transition runs a median of 1 session(s) (max 9) — this is session 1. 51% of exits went up.
Market Health crosses the 50 midline
MHI at 56.6 — a close back above 50 would end the 36th-percentile read.
Phase slips to Bear Market
21.8% of Transition exits went straight to Bear — the conditions analog's worst 5-session outcome (−2.81%) lives on that path.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- Market Health just moved from Bear Market to Transition.
Lines up bearish
- Market Health 36th percentile · High risk
- Conditions analog: +0.92% avg next 5 · 71% win
Net read: Conditions broadly line up with the move.
Market Health just moved from Bear Market to Transition. Conditions broadly line up with the move.
Regime
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