No. 64 · Monday 25 May 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Market Health transitions from Bear to Recovery; MHI jumps to 50.8 from 34.3
Nifty rises 1.32% to 24,031.7. Phase change occurs after just 1 day.
What happenedThe health engine upgraded from Bear to Recovery with MHI rising from 34.3 to 50.8.
The tensionDespite the upgrade, risk level is High and confidence is just 45%.
Net readConditions like today historically favored a 0.61% average 5-day gain.
Nifty Close
24,031.70
+1.32%
Market Phase
🟡 Recovery
session 1 · ↑ recovering
MHI
50.79
28th %ile
Risk
High
confidence 45
FII Idx Fut
−215.0K
12.1th %ile
Walls
24.0–24.2K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
The Crowd
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 25 May · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: The index climbed 1.32% to 24,031.7, hinting at building momentum.
02 The turn
The Turn
What this means: Market Health swung to Recovery after just 1 day, with MHI vaulting from 34.3 to 50.8.
03 The catch
Market Health
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 25 May · percentiles vs 1,205 sessions
What this means: Phase is Recovery, trend is Recovering. MHI at 50.8 sits in the 28.1 percentile with 45% confidence.
Phase
🟡 Recovery
risk High
Participation
60.1202
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
51.1
53th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
Days Like Today
In 16 prior occurrences, the average 5-day forward return was 0.61% with a worst drawdown of -3.04%.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 16 · tier: exact
Horizon
Avg
Median
Win rate
Worst
Next session
+0.13%
+0.17%
56%
−1.18%
Next 5 sessions
+0.61%
+0.76%
62%
−3.04%
Next 10 sessions
+0.68%
+1.46%
62%
−6.01%
Next 20 sessions
+0.56%
+0.81%
69%
−6.83%
Conditions analog: 16 matches produced a 0.61% average gain over 5 days.
With 45% confidence and high risk, posture is guarded but leaning into recovery.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
5-day return > 0.61%
Exceeding the average analog would reinforce the recovery thesis.
5-day return between -3.04% and 0.61%
Returns within this range keep the recovery in play but unconfirmed.
5-day return < -3.04%
A drawdown steeper than the worst analog would break the recovery pattern.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
Health phase flips to Recovery with MHI at 50.8.
16 historical analogs show average 0.61% 5-day forward return.
Nifty gained 1.32% to 24,031.7.
Lines up bearish
Confidence is low at 45% with risk level High.
Worst analog 5-day return is -3.04%.
MHI percentile is just 28.1, indicating early recovery.
Net read: Cautiously constructive. Basic conditions favor 0.61% average forward returns, but fragility is high.
Market Health upgrades to Recovery with MHI at 50.8, supported by a 1.32% daily gain. Historical analogs suggest a 0.61% average 5-day return, but with 45% confidence and high risk, the recovery is fragile. A break below -3.04% would invalidate the setup.