The StratLab Daily
No. 65 · Tuesday 26 May 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Foreign money turned: cash selling.
NIFTY −0.49% to 23,914. FII positioning is the marginal flow this market trades on; a same-day turn in cash and futures direction is mechanical fuel.
What happenedNIFTY −0.49% to 23,914. Foreign money turned: cash selling.
The tensionMarket Health is Transition at High risk, 30th percentile.
Net readConditions broadly line up with the move.
Nifty Close
23,913.70
−0.49%
Market Phase
⚪ Transition
session 1 · ↑ improving
FII Idx Fut
−152.9K
55.2th %ile
Walls
23.9–23.9K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
Foreign money turned: cash selling.
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 26 May · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: FII positioning is the marginal flow this market trades on; a same-day turn in cash and futures direction is mechanical fuel.
02 The turn
What changed today
What this means: FII cash −₹2,846 Cr after +₹2,115 Cr (settled) · DII +₹423 Cr · FII net index futures -152,865 (55th pctile of the year)
03 The catch
Market Health reads Transition
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 26 May · percentiles vs 1,206 sessions
What this means: the internals broadly agree with today's move.
Phase
⚪ Transition
risk High
Participation
55.9118
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
55.9
62th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
51 sessions like this one.
Every session sharing today's Market Health signature — transition, High risk — 51 of them on record.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 51 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | +0.24% | +0.11% | 55% | −0.93% |
| Next 5 sessions | +0.98% | +0.83% | 72% | −2.81% |
| Next 10 sessions | +0.82% | +1.31% | 57% | −3.63% |
| Next 20 sessions | +0.31% | −0.21% | 43% | −8.18% |
This compares today against every session sharing the same Market Health signature, regardless of what triggered it.
Conditions like today historically favored staying with the move.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Market Phase exits upward
Transition runs a median of 1 session(s) (max 9) — this is session 1. 53% of exits went up.
Market Health crosses the 50 midline
MHI at 51.9 — a close back above 50 would end the 30th-percentile read.
Phase slips to Bear Market
18.9% of Transition exits went straight to Bear — the conditions analog's worst 5-session outcome (−2.81%) lives on that path.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- Foreign money turned: cash selling.
Lines up bearish
- Market Health 30th percentile · High risk
- Conditions analog: +0.98% avg next 5 · 72% win
Net read: Conditions broadly line up with the move.
Foreign money turned: cash selling. Conditions broadly line up with the move.
Regime
BULL