The StratLab Daily
No. 63 · Friday 22 May 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Six Names Break on Volume as Bear Market Extends to Ninth Day
Index ekes out a 0.27% gain but underlying breadth weakens, with StratLab Breadth Index dropping to 34.31.
What happenedNifty closed at 23719.3, up 0.27%.
The tensionThe shallow bounce comes inside a 9-session Bear Market phase where risk is rated Very High.
Net readNet bearish with elevated risk.
Nifty Close
23,719.30
+0.27%
Market Phase
🔴 Bear Market
session 9 · ↓ weakening
Risk
Very High
confidence 10
FII Idx Fut
−225.0K
9.7th %ile
Walls
23.7–23.8K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
The Crowd
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 22 May · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: Six stocks fell on heavy volume, led by ENGINERSIN -8.9% and CENTRALBK -7.8%, despite the index gain.
02 The turn
The Turn
What this means: Early strength reversed, leaving the Nifty near 23719 and pushing breadth measures lower.
03 The catch
The Catch
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 22 May · percentiles vs 1,204 sessions
What this means: StratLab Breadth Index slid to 34.31 (10.9th percentile), flagging a weakening Bear Market now 9 days old.
Phase
🔴 Bear Market
risk Very High
Participation
52.505
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
41.3
39th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
Days Like Today
In 111 similar sessions, the average 5-day forward return was +0.39%, with the worst drawdown at -4.86%.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 111 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | +0.14% | +0.13% | 54% | −3.24% |
| Next 5 sessions | +0.39% | +0.26% | 55% | −4.86% |
| Next 10 sessions | +0.47% | +0.30% | 52% | −7.37% |
| Next 20 sessions | +1.13% | +0.68% | 61% | −8.66% |
StratLab Breadth Index at 34.31 sits in the lowest decile of historical readings with a confidence of 10.0.
Bear Market – Very High Risk
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Wire Confirm
No active wire
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- Forward 5-day average in similar setups: +0.39%.
- StratLab Breadth Index at 34.31 is deeply oversold.
- The index held a positive close despite negative breadth.
Lines up bearish
- Bear Market phase extended to 9 days with 10.0 confidence.
- Worst-case analogue suffered -4.86% in 5 days.
- Risk rating remains Very High.
Net read: Bearish conditions persist; the index’s shallow bounce does not alter the negative trend.
While the Nifty managed a slim gain, a cluster of stocks broke down on volume and breadth hit extreme lows — bear market rules apply.
Regime
BULL