No. 58 · Friday 15 May 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Market Health at 7.5th Percentile, Bear Phase Day 4
The StratLab Breadth Index fell to 29.95, placing it in the bottom decile, while the Nifty closed at 23,643.5 with a 0.19% loss.
What happenedThe Nifty declined 0.19% to 23,643.5.
The tensionMarket health is at the 7.5th percentile, in a Bear Market phase now 4 sessions old.
Net readNet stance is bearish with very high risk and a weakening trend.
Nifty Close
23,643.50
−0.19%
Market Phase
🔴 Bear Market
session 4 · ↓ weakening
MHI
29.95
8th %ile
Risk
Very High
confidence 10
FII Idx Fut
−216.5K
9.7th %ile
Walls
23.5–23.8K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
The Crowd
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 15 May · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: The crowd edged lower, with the index slipping 0.19% in a session marked by caution.
02 The turn
The Turn
What this means: Readings this extreme—7.5th percentile—historically tend to resolve rather than persist, signaling a potential turn.
03 The catch
The Catch (Market Health)
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 15 May · percentiles vs 1,199 sessions
What this means: StratLab Breadth Index at 29.95, 7.5th percentile. Bear Market, trend weakening, risk very high.
Phase
🔴 Bear Market
risk Very High
Participation
38.5542
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
37.7
31th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
Days Like Today
108 prior matches show 5-day avg +0.39%, worst -4.86%.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 108 · tier: exact
Horizon
Avg
Median
Win rate
Worst
Next session
+0.14%
+0.14%
54%
−3.24%
Next 5 sessions
+0.39%
+0.24%
54%
−4.86%
Next 10 sessions
+0.47%
+0.30%
52%
−7.37%
Next 20 sessions
+1.13%
+0.68%
61%
−8.66%
Extreme health readings often lead to mean reversion, but the bear trend remains intact.
Conditions support a defensive posture.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Confirm
A 5-day return above +0.39% would confirm initial recovery.
Watch
A 5-day return near -4.86% would mark persistent downside.
Break
A close violating the worst-case -4.86% would signal deep breakdown.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
7.5th percentile health often precedes a bounce.
Analog 5-day forward average is +0.39%.
Nifty lost only 0.19% on the day, not accelerating.
Lines up bearish
Bear Market phase with weakening trend.
MHI at 29.95, deep in oversold territory.
Analog worst 5-day return is -4.86%, a sharp risk.
Net read: Net view is cautious; extreme readings favor a short-term bounce, but the bear trend is dominant.
Market health at the 7.5th percentile signals maturing downside. Conditions like today historically favored a 0.39% 5-day return, though the worst case was -4.86%.