The StratLab Daily
No. 59 · Monday 18 May 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Market health sits in the bottom decile of its own history.
NIFTY +0.03% to 23,650. MHI deciles this extreme are rare enough that they usually resolve, not persist.
What happenedNIFTY +0.03% to 23,650. Market health sits in the bottom decile of its own history.
The tensionMarket Health is Bear Market at Very High risk, 3rd percentile.
Net readConditions broadly line up with the move.
Nifty Close
23,649.95
+0.03%
Market Phase
🔴 Bear Market
session 5 · ↓ weakening
Risk
Very High
confidence 10
FII Idx Fut
−209.9K
10.9th %ile
Walls
23.5–23.8K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
Market health sits in the bottom decile of its own history.
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 18 May · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: MHI deciles this extreme are rare enough that they usually resolve, not persist.
02 The turn
What changed today
What this means: MHI 19.02 — 3th percentile
03 The catch
Market Health reads Bear Market
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 18 May · percentiles vs 1,200 sessions
What this means: the internals broadly agree with today's move.
Phase
🔴 Bear Market
risk Very High
Participation
41.3655
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
29.9
22th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
109 sessions like this one.
Every session sharing today's Market Health signature — bear market, Very High risk — 109 of them on record.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 109 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | +0.14% | +0.13% | 54% | −3.24% |
| Next 5 sessions | +0.39% | +0.24% | 54% | −4.86% |
| Next 10 sessions | +0.47% | +0.30% | 52% | −7.37% |
| Next 20 sessions | +1.13% | +0.68% | 61% | −8.66% |
This compares today against every session sharing the same Market Health signature, regardless of what triggered it.
Conditions like today historically favored staying with the move.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Market Phase exits upward
Bear Market runs a median of 2 session(s) (max 16) — this is session 5. 17% of exits went up.
Market Health crosses the 50 midline
MHI at 19.0 — a close back above 50 would end the 3rd-percentile read.
Phase slips to Bear Market
0.0% of Bear Market exits went straight to Bear — the conditions analog's worst 5-session outcome (−4.86%) lives on that path.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- Market health sits in the bottom decile of its own history.
Lines up bearish
- Market Health 3rd percentile · Very High risk
- Conditions analog: +0.39% avg next 5 · 54% win
Net read: Conditions broadly line up with the move.
Market health sits in the bottom decile of its own history. Conditions broadly line up with the move.
Regime
BEAR