No. 57 · Thursday 14 May 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
FII Cash Pivots to Buying: +₹1,100 Cr as Nifty Jumps 1.18%
Nifty closes at 23,689.6 after FIIs reverse a -₹4,024 Cr spell with +₹1,100 Cr buying. Market Health stays at 36.04 (12.5th percentile) with Very High risk.
What happenedFII cash flow turned from -₹4,024 Cr to +₹1,100 Cr.
The tensionMarket Health Index at 36.04 (12.5th percentile), Bear Market phase, Very High risk.
Net readHistorical conditions like today show a 5-day forward average of -0.07% and worst case -4.77%.
Nifty Close
23,689.60
+1.18%
Market Phase
🔴 Bear Market
session 3 · ↑ recovering
MHI
36.04
12th %ile
Risk
Very High
confidence 45
FII Idx Fut
−225.6K
8.9th %ile
Walls
23.6–23.8K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
01 The Crowd
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 14 May · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: Nifty gained 1.18% to close at 23,689.6. The session was driven by FII cash buying of +₹1,100 Cr.
02 The turn
02 The Turn
What this means: FII cash swung sharply from an outflow of -₹4,024 Cr to an inflow of +₹1,100 Cr. DIIs added +₹644 Cr, while FII index futures held short with -225,611 contracts (9th percentile of the year).
03 The catch
03 The Catch (Market Health)
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 14 May · percentiles vs 1,198 sessions
What this means: Market Health Index at 36.04 (12.5th percentile). Phase: Bear Market (run 3), Trend: Recovering, Risk: Very High, Confidence: 45.0.
Phase
🔴 Bear Market
risk Very High
Participation
35.5422
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
40.5
35th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
04 Days Like Today
Conditions like today historically favored a 5-day forward return of -0.07% and a worst-case drop of 4.77%.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 60 · tier: exact
Horizon
Avg
Median
Win rate
Worst
Next session
−0.20%
−0.16%
35%
−4.78%
Next 5 sessions
−0.07%
+0.00%
49%
−4.77%
Next 10 sessions
+0.25%
+0.48%
54%
−7.12%
Next 20 sessions
+1.34%
+0.82%
63%
−6.63%
The 5-day forward average of -0.07% in 60 similar instances signals limited upside; tail risk is elevated.
Defensive with cautious recovery bias
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
FIIs sustain +₹1,100 Cr buying
A daily FII cash figure above +₹1,100 Cr and Nifty holding above 23,689.6 would confirm the inflow turn.
MHI falls below 36.04
If Market Health Index drops from 36.04, or FII cash reverses to negative, the recovery attempt weakens.
Nifty breaches 4.77% downside
A decline of 4.77% from the close would match the analog worst-case and signal a failure of the bounce.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
FII cash turned positive at +₹1,100 Cr after -₹4,024 Cr outflow.
Nifty rallied 1.18% to 23,689.6.
Market Health trend is Recovering from Bear Market.
Lines up bearish
Market Health phase is Bear Market with Very High risk.
MHI at 36.04, in the 12.5th percentile.
Analog forward 5-day average return is -0.07%.
Net read: Cautious: the FII buying is a positive catalyst, but weak market health and negative condition analogs suggest upside is capped.
FII inflows of +₹1,100 Cr drove a 1.18% gain, but with the market in a Bear health phase and historical analogs averaging -0.07%, the rally faces significant headwinds.