No. 32 · Week ending Friday 9 Oct 2026 · NSE, data through close
Weekly Edition · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Market Health Index (MHI) sits in the bottom decile of its history.
The market is Recovering inside a Bear Market phase, with Very High risk and a 3.5 percentile health reading.
What happenedThe close slipped 0.16% to 22520.45. The Bear Market phase has run 11 days.
The tensionThe trend is Recovering, but risk remains Very High. Market health is still near an historical extreme.
Net readRecovery is present, but the underlying health signal remains weak.
Nifty Close
22,520.45
−0.16%
Market Phase
🔴 Bear Market
11 sessions · ↑ recovering
MHI
18.19
4th %ile
Risk
Very High
confidence 45
FII Idx Fut
−294.0K
week-end
Walls
22.5–22.6K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
01 | The crowd
Positioning over the last 12 weeks
FII net index futures · 12 weeks · '000 contracts · endpoint = 9 Oct · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: The crowd met a -0.16% session, leaving the index at 22520.45. The tape remains fragile inside a Bear Market phase.
02 The turn
02 | The turn
What this means: The turn is Recovering inside a Bear Market phase. That phase has run 11 days.
03 The catch
03 | The catch
Market health over the last 12 weeks
Market Health Index · 12 weeks · 0–100 · endpoint = 9 Oct · percentiles vs 1,299 sessions
What this means: Market Health Index (MHI) is 18.19 at the 3.5 percentile, with Very High risk. Readings this extreme are rare enough to usually resolve, not persist.
Adv / Decl days
3 / 2
of the week
Week range
22,232–22,776
close-to-close
StratLab Breadth Index
15.3 to 18.5
Monday to Friday
04 Days like today
04 | Days like today
Conditions like today historically favored a forward-five outcome of -0.09%, with -4.77% the worst.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 72 · tier: exact
Horizon
Avg
Median
Win rate
Worst
Next session
−0.19%
−0.16%
35%
−4.78%
Next 5 sessions
−0.09%
−0.25%
46%
−4.77%
Next 10 sessions
+0.18%
+0.20%
52%
−7.12%
Next 20 sessions
+1.34%
+0.87%
64%
−6.63%
There were 72 historical matches. Their average forward-five outcome was -0.09%.
Bear Market, recovering; risk is Very High.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Confirm | Recovery remains visible
The trend is Recovering, while the phase remains Bear Market.
Watch | Health at the extreme
MHI is 18.19 at the 3.5 percentile, with Very High risk.
Break | Weakness persists
The Bear Market phase has run 11 days, and historical matches reached -4.77% at the worst.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
The trend is Recovering.
Extreme MHI readings usually resolve, not persist.
Lines up bearish
Risk is Very High.
The Bear Market phase has run 11 days.
Historical matches averaged -0.09% forward.
Net read: Recovery has arrived, but it is not yet matched by market health.
A Recovering trend sits against a bottom-decile Market Health Index (MHI) reading and Very High risk.