No. 31 · Week ending Friday 25 Sep 2026 · NSE, data through close
Weekly Edition · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Recovering trend inside a Bear Market phase
The tape fell 1.17% to 23140.5, while health turned recovering.
What happenedThe trend moved from Weakening to Recovering as the market closed at 23140.5.
The tensionRecovering trend meets Bear Market phase. The phase has run for 2 periods.
Net readRecovery is appearing, but Very High risk keeps the overall read cautious.
Nifty Close
23,140.50
−1.17%
Market Phase
🔴 Bear Market
2 sessions · ↑ recovering
MHI
33.23
11th %ile
Risk
Very High
confidence 45
FII Idx Fut
−312.0K
week-end
Walls
23.0–23.2K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
01 the crowd | Weak tape
Positioning over the last 12 weeks
FII net index futures · 12 weeks · '000 contracts · endpoint = 25 Sep · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: The market fell 1.17% to 23140.5, keeping the crowd under pressure.
02 The turn
02 the turn | Health improves
What this means: Health turned from Weakening to Recovering inside the Bear Market phase. Trend and phase disagree briefly, the usual opening condition for a phase transition.
03 The catch
03 the catch | Market Health
Market health over the last 12 weeks
Market Health Index · 12 weeks · 0–100 · endpoint = 25 Sep · percentiles vs 1,290 sessions
What this means: Market Health Index (MHI) is 33.23, at the 10.7 percentile, with Very High risk and 45.0 confidence.
Adv / Decl days
1 / 4
of the week
Week range
23,063–23,447
close-to-close
StratLab Breadth Index
30.2 to 30.9
Monday to Friday
04 Days like today
04 days like today
Across 69 matches, conditions like today historically favored a near-flat 5-day outcome: -0.01% on average, with -4.77% worst.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 69 · tier: exact
Horizon
Avg
Median
Win rate
Worst
Next session
−0.18%
−0.15%
35%
−4.78%
Next 5 sessions
−0.01%
−0.07%
48%
−4.77%
Next 10 sessions
+0.33%
+0.58%
54%
−7.12%
Next 20 sessions
+1.34%
+0.87%
64%
−6.63%
The historical pattern is mildly negative on average, with a materially weaker worst outcome.
Cautious: a recovering signal inside a Bear Market phase.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Recovery confirmation
The Recovering trend is the constructive thread inside the current phase.
Phase transition
The key watch is whether Recovering can displace the Bear Market phase.
Risk remains elevated
Very High risk and a 33.23 Market Health Index keep the recovery fragile.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
Trend: Recovering
Health turned from Weakening to Recovering
Phase-transition conditions are present
Lines up bearish
Phase: Bear Market
Risk: Very High
Market Health Index (MHI): 33.23
Net read: A tentative recovery signal is developing, but the Bear Market phase and Very High risk still dominate the net view.
The turn is constructive, not conclusive: Recovering health is still operating inside a Bear Market phase.