The StratLab Weekly
No. 30 · Week ending Friday 18 Sep 2026 · NSE, data through close
Weekly Edition · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Market Health Index (MHI) sits in the bottom decile of its history as the market gains 0.99% to 23346.4.
The phase is Bear Market, the trend is Recovering, and risk remains Very High.
What happenedThe session gained 0.99%, while Market Health Index (MHI) remained at 30.44 and the 9th percentile.
The tensionRecovery is running inside a Bear Market phase, with Very High risk and 45.0 confidence.
Net readThe tape improved, but internal market health remains fragile.
Nifty Close
23,346.40
+0.99%
Market Phase
🔴 Bear Market
2 sessions · ↑ recovering
Risk
Very High
confidence 45
FII Idx Fut
−288.4K
week-end
Walls
23.3–23.4K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
The crowd
Positioning over the last 12 weeks
FII net index futures · 12 weeks · '000 contracts · endpoint = 18 Sep · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: The visible crowd response was positive: the market closed at 23346.4, up 0.99%. The broader phase still reads Bear Market.
02 The turn
The turn
What this means: The turn is a Recovering trend, not yet a change in phase. The Bear Market phase has run for 2 periods.
03 The catch
The catch (Market Health)
Market health over the last 12 weeks
Market Health Index · 12 weeks · 0–100 · endpoint = 18 Sep · percentiles vs 1,285 sessions
What this means: The catch is Market Health Index (MHI) at 30.44, sitting in the bottom decile of its history. Risk remains Very High.
Adv / Decl days
2 / 2
of the week
Week range
23,119–23,346
close-to-close
StratLab Breadth Index
14.7 to 36.5
Monday to Friday
04 Days like today
Days like today
Conditions like today historically favored a 0.01% average forward outcome across 67 matches, with a -4.77% worst outcome.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 67 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | −0.20% | −0.16% | 33% | −4.78% |
| Next 5 sessions | +0.01% | +0.00% | 50% | −4.77% |
| Next 10 sessions | +0.33% | +0.58% | 54% | −7.12% |
| Next 20 sessions | +1.34% | +0.87% | 64% | −6.63% |
Market health is rare enough at this extreme that it usually resolves, not persists. Confidence is 45.0.
Cautious recovery: the trend is Recovering, but the Bear Market phase and Very High risk keep the stance restrained.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Confirm
A sustained recovery would require Market Health Index (MHI) to improve from 30.44.
Watch
The Recovering trend remains inside a Bear Market phase with Very High risk.
Break
The fragile setup is challenged if the Bear Market phase persists beyond its 2-period run.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- 0.99% session gain
- Recovering trend
- Extreme market health usually resolves, not persists
Lines up bearish
- Bear Market phase
- Very High risk
- -4.77% worst forward outcome across 67 matches
Net read: Recovery is visible, but the Market Health Index (MHI) signal keeps the net view cautious.
A 0.99% rebound meets bottom-decile market health: recovery is visible, but Very High risk and the Bear Market phase keep the net view cautious.
Regime
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