No. 29 · Week ending Friday 11 Sep 2026 · NSE, data through close
Weekly Edition · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
NIFTY −1.60% into a Bear Market, with Market Health Index (MHI) at 21.16
The week saw 0 advancing vs 5 declining days. Market Health is weakening, with very high risk.
What happenedNIFTY fell −1.60% for the week, from 23,779.15 to 23,398.10.
The tensionThe tape weakened across 0 advancing vs 5 declining days, while the 132-match analog averaged a positive forward outcome.
Net readConditions like today historically favored a 0.43% average outcome over the next 5 days, with a −4.86% worst outcome.
Nifty Close
23,398.10
−1.60%
Market Phase
🔴 Bear Market
3 sessions · ↓ weakening
MHI
21.16
4th %ile
Risk
Very High
confidence 10
FII Idx Fut
−284.9K
week-end
Walls
23.3–23.5K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
01 · The crowd
Positioning over the last 12 weeks
FII net index futures · 12 weeks · '000 contracts · endpoint = 11 Sep · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: The crowd moved together to the downside: 0 advancing vs 5 declining days.
02 The turn
02 · The turn
What this means: The week turned meaningfully lower by weekly standards, with NIFTY down −1.60%.
03 The catch
03 · The catch · Market Health
Market health over the last 12 weeks
Market Health Index · 12 weeks · 0–100 · endpoint = 11 Sep · percentiles vs 1,282 sessions
What this means: Market Health Index (MHI) is 21.16 at the 3.8 percentile: Bear Market, weakening trend, very high risk.
Adv / Decl days
0 / 5
of the week
Week range
23,398–23,779
close-to-close
StratLab Breadth Index
30.7 to 28.0
Monday to Friday
04 Days like today
04 · Days like today
There were 132 matches, with a 0.43% average forward 5-day outcome and a −4.86% worst outcome.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 132 · tier: exact
Horizon
Avg
Median
Win rate
Worst
Next session
+0.14%
+0.12%
54%
−3.24%
Next 5 sessions
+0.43%
+0.29%
55%
−4.86%
Next 10 sessions
+0.57%
+0.37%
54%
−7.37%
Next 20 sessions
+1.20%
+0.80%
64%
−8.66%
The historical average was positive, but the outcome range included a −4.86% worst result.
Defensive conditions remain dominant: Bear Market, weakening trend and very high risk.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Confirm · Health stays weak
Market Health Index (MHI) remains at 21.16, with Bear Market phase, weakening trend and very high risk.
Watch · The analog cushion
The 132-match set averaged 0.43% over the forward 5 days, but the worst outcome was −4.86%.
Break · The positive analog read
The historical average does not remove the −4.86% downside outcome in the same-condition set.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
132 matches averaged 0.43% over the forward 5 days.
Conditions like today historically favored a positive average outcome.
Lines up bearish
Bear Market, weakening trend and very high risk.
0 advancing vs 5 declining days.
The worst analog outcome was −4.86%.
Net read: The tape is weak and Market Health is defensive; the analog average is positive but exposed to a −4.86% worst outcome.
A −1.60% week meets a Bear Market, weakening trend and very high risk. Conditions like today historically favored a 0.43% average outcome over 5 days, but included a −4.86% worst outcome.