The StratLab Weekly
No. 28 · Week ending Friday 4 Sep 2026 · NSE, data through close
Weekly Edition · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Market Health moves from Weak Downtrend to Bear Market; index down 0.76%.
Index closes at 23,897.7; risk shifts to Very High.
What happenedWeak Downtrend became Bear Market; Market Health Index (MHI) 41.1 to 38.6.
The tensionThe 0.76% drop came with a phase transition, not just a lower index close.
Net readBear Market phase, 1 session old.
Nifty Close
23,897.70
−0.76%
Market Phase
🔴 Bear Market
1 sessions · ↓ weakening
Risk
Very High
confidence 10
FII Idx Fut
−235.8K
week-end
Walls
23.8–24.0K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
The crowd
Positioning over the last 12 weeks
FII net index futures · 12 weeks · '000 contracts · endpoint = 4 Sep · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: Index closed at 23,897.7, down 0.76%.
02 The turn
The turn
What this means: Market Health moved from Weak Downtrend to Bear Market; MHI 41.1 to 38.6.
03 The catch
The catch: Market Health
Market health over the last 12 weeks
Market Health Index · 12 weeks · 0–100 · endpoint = 4 Sep · percentiles vs 1,277 sessions
What this means: MHI at 38.55, 15.6th percentile; risk Very High, trend Weakening.
Adv / Decl days
1 / 4
of the week
Week range
23,873–24,080
close-to-close
StratLab Breadth Index
40.6 to 33.5
Monday to Friday
04 Days like today
Days like today
Conditions like today historically favored +0.48% average 5-day return across 129 matches; worst 5-day was -4.86%.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 129 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | +0.15% | +0.13% | 55% | −3.24% |
| Next 5 sessions | +0.48% | +0.33% | 56% | −4.86% |
| Next 10 sessions | +0.59% | +0.41% | 55% | −7.37% |
| Next 20 sessions | +1.25% | +0.84% | 65% | −8.66% |
Confidence 10.0; phase run length 1; MHI percentile 15.6.
Very High risk; Bear Market phase.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Close above 23,897.7
MHI above 38.55
Close holds 23,897.7
MHI percentile at 15.6
Close falls 4.86% from 23,897.7
MHI below 38.55
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- 129 analog matches show +0.48% average 5-day forward return.
- Phase move is 1 session old.
Lines up bearish
- Market Health phase is Bear Market.
- MHI percentile at 15.6.
- Worst analog 5-day drawdown is -4.86%.
Net read: Bear Market phase with Very High risk; 129 analogs show +0.48% average 5-day forward return.
Index down 0.76% to 23,897.7; Market Health shifted to Bear Market with MHI 38.55 and Very High risk.
Regime
—