The StratLab Weekly
No. 27 · Week ending Friday 21 Aug 2026 · NSE, data through close
Weekly Edition · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Market Health Index (MHI) rolls to Weak Downtrend on a -0.15% day
Close 24,252.0; MHI 43.06; phase run length 1.
What happenedMarket Health Index (MHI) fell 48.7 → 43.1; phase moved Transition → Weak Downtrend.
The tensionPrice closed only -0.15% while Market Health shifted to Weak Downtrend.
Net readConditions like today historically favored a 5-day average of -0.93%.
Nifty Close
24,252.00
−0.15%
Market Phase
🟠 Weak Dntrend
1 sessions · ↓ weakening
FII Idx Fut
−209.9K
week-end
Walls
24.2–24.3K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
01 · The Crowd
Positioning over the last 12 weeks
FII net index futures · 12 weeks · '000 contracts · endpoint = 21 Aug · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: The index closed at 24,252.0, down only -0.15%.
02 The turn
02 · The Turn
What this means: MHI shifted Transition → Weak Downtrend; MHI fell 48.7 → 43.1.
03 The catch
03 · Market Health
Market health over the last 12 weeks
Market Health Index · 12 weeks · 0–100 · endpoint = 21 Aug · percentiles vs 1,267 sessions
What this means: MHI 43.06; 19.7 percentile; risk High; phase run length 1.
Adv / Decl days
1 / 4
of the week
Week range
24,078–24,288
close-to-close
StratLab Breadth Index
50.4 to 41.6
Monday to Friday
04 Days like today
04 · Days Like Today
Conditions like today historically favored a 5-day average of -0.93%; worst -2.97% across 12 similar historical matches.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 12 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | −0.11% | −0.27% | 42% | −1.65% |
| Next 5 sessions | −0.93% | −1.08% | 27% | −2.97% |
| Next 10 sessions | −0.76% | −0.90% | 36% | −3.54% |
| Next 20 sessions | −1.14% | −0.87% | 36% | −4.92% |
Conditions like today historically favored a 5-day average of -0.93%.
Weak Downtrend / High risk.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Reclaim
MHI back above 48.7 would mark return to Transition.
Hold
MHI near 43.06 with index at 24,252.0 and -0.15% one-day return.
Break
MHI below 43.06 aligns with the -2.97% worst five-day path in similar conditions.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- One-day decline only -0.15%.
- Phase run length 1; deterioration is fresh.
- Index held 24,252.0 on a small dip.
Lines up bearish
- MHI fell 48.7 → 43.1.
- Risk reads High; MHI percentile 19.7.
- Similar conditions averaged -0.93% over next five days.
Net read: Weak Downtrend with MHI at 43.06 and historical five-day average of -0.93%.
The market's health shifted to Weak Downtrend even with a small -0.15% price move; MHI 43.06 reflects a high-risk, weak trend.
Regime
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