The StratLab Weekly
No. 26 · Week ending Friday 14 Aug 2026 · NSE, data through close
Weekly Edition · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Market Health just moved from Transition to Bear Market.
NIFTY −0.89% to 24,366. A phase transition means the health engine's six-state read of market conditions changed today, not just the index price.
What happenedNIFTY −0.89% to 24,366. Market Health just moved from Transition to Bear Market.
The tensionMarket Health is Bear Market at Very High risk, 16th percentile.
Net readConditions broadly line up with the move.
Nifty Close
24,366.00
−0.89%
Market Phase
🔴 Bear Market
1 sessions · ↓ weakening
Risk
Very High
confidence 10
FII Idx Fut
−176.7K
week-end
Walls
24.3–24.5K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
Market Health just moved from Transition to Bear Market.
Positioning over the last 12 weeks
FII net index futures · 12 weeks · '000 contracts · endpoint = 14 Aug · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: A phase transition means the health engine's six-state read of market conditions changed today, not just the index price.
02 The turn
What changed today
What this means: Transition → Bear Market · MHI 48.5 → 38.9
03 The catch
Market Health reads Bear Market
Market health over the last 12 weeks
Market Health Index · 12 weeks · 0–100 · endpoint = 14 Aug · percentiles vs 1,262 sessions
What this means: the internals broadly agree with today's move.
Adv / Decl days
1 / 4
of the week
Week range
24,366–24,584
close-to-close
StratLab Breadth Index
59.2 to 52.7
Monday to Friday
04 Days like today
125 sessions like this one.
Every session sharing today's Market Health signature — bear market, Very High risk — 125 of them on record.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 125 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | +0.16% | +0.14% | 56% | −3.24% |
| Next 5 sessions | +0.50% | +0.35% | 57% | −4.86% |
| Next 10 sessions | +0.60% | +0.45% | 55% | −7.37% |
| Next 20 sessions | +1.26% | +0.80% | 64% | −8.66% |
This compares today against every session sharing the same Market Health signature, regardless of what triggered it.
Conditions like today historically favored staying with the move.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Market Phase exits upward
Bear Market runs a median of 2 session(s) (max 16) — this is session 1. 20% of exits went up.
Market Health crosses the 50 midline
Market Health Index (MHI) at 38.9 — a close back above 50 would end the 16th-percentile read.
Phase slips to Bear Market
0.0% of Bear Market exits went straight to Bear — the conditions analog's worst 5-session outcome (−4.86%) lives on that path.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- Market Health just moved from Transition to Bear Market.
Lines up bearish
- Market Health 16th percentile · Very High risk
- Conditions analog: +0.50% avg next 5 · 57% win
Net read: Conditions broadly line up with the move.
Market Health just moved from Transition to Bear Market. Conditions broadly line up with the move.
Regime
—