The StratLab Weekly
No. 25 · Week ending Friday 7 Aug 2026 · NSE, data through close
Weekly Edition · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
A week without a statistically meaningful change.
NIFTY -0.82% with no trigger; transition persists in low-confidence range.
What happenedNIFTY slipped -0.82% on the week with no directional signal.
The tensionDespite the dip, Market Health Index (MHI) at 51.53 holds a Transition phase.
Net readNet stance is drift: the market neither broke down nor signaled recovery.
Nifty Close
24,570.65
−0.82%
Market Phase
⚪ Transition
5 sessions · → stable
Risk
Elevated
confidence 35
FII Idx Fut
−150.1K
week-end
Walls
24.5–24.6K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
The Crowd
Positioning over the last 12 weeks
FII net index futures · 12 weeks · '000 contracts · endpoint = 7 Aug · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: A -0.82% weekly loss produced no rush for the exits.
02 The turn
The Turn
What this means: Transition phase extended to week 5; trend stable but risk remains elevated.
03 The catch
Market Health
Market health over the last 12 weeks
Market Health Index · 12 weeks · 0–100 · endpoint = 7 Aug · percentiles vs 1,257 sessions
What this means: Market Health Index (MHI) at 51.53, 30th percentile, confidence just 35.
Adv / Decl days
2 / 3
of the week
Week range
24,571–24,774
close-to-close
StratLab Breadth Index
65.4 to 61.2
Monday to Friday
04 Days like today
Days Like Today
In 18 similar episodes, the average forward 5-day return was -0.73%, worst -5.61%.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 18 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | −0.04% | −0.05% | 44% | −2.64% |
| Next 5 sessions | −0.73% | −0.46% | 50% | −5.61% |
| Next 10 sessions | −1.66% | −1.92% | 22% | −7.78% |
| Next 20 sessions | −1.08% | −1.06% | 50% | −9.19% |
No trigger fired this week, leaving the market in a low-conviction drift.
Transition holding pattern—waiting for a catalyst.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Confirm
A close above 24,570 regains tactical stability.
Watch
If 24,570 is lost, the next support is untested.
Break
A break to 23,193, the worst-case analog, could follow.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- Transition phase can resolve upward
- Stable trend beneath surface
- No trigger leaves rebound potential
Lines up bearish
- 18 analog cases show average -0.73% forward
- MHI in low 30th percentile
- Low confidence skews risk-weighted outcomes negative
Net read: Cautious: transition plus unfavorable historical analogs argue against adding risk.
A directionless week with no break or signal keeps conviction low and risk elevated, tilting the ledger toward caution.
Regime
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