The StratLab Weekly
No. 24 · Week ending Friday 31 Jul 2026 · NSE, data through close
Weekly Edition · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Market Health Exits Bear Market as Nifty Jumps 1.62%
The Market Health Index (MHI) rose from 33.1 to 40.5, triggering a phase shift to Weak Downtrend—but risk remains high.
What happenedPhase transition from Bear Market to Weak Downtrend.
The tensionDespite the 1.62% rally, MHI is only at the 18th percentile with confidence at 45%.
Net readRecovery is young and fragile; historical analogs lean negative.
Nifty Close
24,383.60
+1.62%
Market Phase
🟠 Weak Dntrend
1 sessions · ↑ recovering
FII Idx Fut
−173.1K
week-end
Walls
24.2–24.5K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
The Crowd
Positioning over the last 12 weeks
FII net index futures · 12 weeks · '000 contracts · endpoint = 31 Jul · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: Nifty closed at 24383.6 after a 1.62% surge, lifting the Market Health Index (MHI) to 40.5.
02 The turn
The Turn
What this means: MHI crossed the threshold out of Bear Market, moving from 33.1 to 40.5 and flipping the phase to Weak Downtrend.
03 The catch
Market Health
Market health over the last 12 weeks
Market Health Index · 12 weeks · 0–100 · endpoint = 31 Jul · percentiles vs 1,252 sessions
What this means: MHI at 40.5 sits in the 18th percentile. The new phase is 1 day old, with a Recovering trend and High risk, and confidence at 45%.
Adv / Decl days
3 / 2
of the week
Week range
23,985–24,384
close-to-close
StratLab Breadth Index
44.1 to 51.1
Monday to Friday
04 Days like today
Days Like Today
Across 30 similar occurrences, conditions like today historically favored a -0.28% average 5-day forward return, with a worst case of -4.84%.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 30 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | +0.20% | +0.20% | 57% | −2.11% |
| Next 5 sessions | −0.28% | −0.52% | 41% | −4.84% |
| Next 10 sessions | −0.31% | +0.50% | 52% | −8.48% |
| Next 20 sessions | +0.04% | −0.20% | 41% | −5.18% |
Short-term analog leans negative; the recovery is not yet confirmed.
Defensive
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Confirm
A 5-day return above -0.28% would indicate a stronger recovery.
Watch
A test of the -4.84% worst-case drawdown remains a key risk.
Break
Violating the -4.84% level would likely signal a failed transition and deeper selling.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- Phase shift to Weak Downtrend from Bear Market.
- 1.62% single-day advance with MHI inflection.
- Recovering trend suggests diminishing downside momentum.
Lines up bearish
- MHI in 18th percentile and confidence at 45%.
- Forward 5-day average return of -0.28%.
- Worst-case analog drawdown of -4.84% still possible.
Net read: Net view is cautious; the phase change is constructive but unconfirmed, with negative short-term tendencies.
The market has regained a foothold, but the low MHI percentile and weak analog returns caution against immediate aggression.
Regime
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