The StratLab Weekly
No. 22 · Week ending Friday 17 Jul 2026 · NSE, data through close
Weekly Edition · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Price and participation moved in opposite directions this week.
A week where the index and the StratLab Breadth Index disagree is a week where the rally's foundations matter more than its size.
What happenedNIFTY closed at 24334.3 (+0.51%) while the StratLab Breadth Index dropped from 59.6 to 47.3.
The tensionThe 0.51% index gain masked a sharp drop in breadth from 59.6 to 47.3, revealing a divergence.
Net readNet effect: a high-risk, low-confidence rally with weakening internal support.
Nifty Close
24,334.30
+0.51%
Market Phase
🟠 Weak Dntrend
2 sessions · ↑ recovering
FII Idx Fut
−216.5K
week-end
Walls
24.2–24.5K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
01 the crowd
Positioning over the last 12 weeks
FII net index futures · 12 weeks · '000 contracts · endpoint = 17 Jul · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: The crowd bought the 0.51% move, but beneath the surface the StratLab Breadth Index fell to 47.3.
02 The turn
02 the turn
What this means: The turn came as breadth deteriorated sharply—the StratLab Breadth Index fell from 59.6 to 47.3 in a single week.
03 The catch
03 the catch
Market health over the last 12 weeks
Market Health Index · 12 weeks · 0–100 · endpoint = 17 Jul · percentiles vs 1,242 sessions
What this means: Market Health: Weak Downtrend (Recovering), risk High, MHI 46.99 (23.8th percentile, 2 sessions in current phase).
Adv / Decl days
1 / 4
of the week
Week range
24,052–24,334
close-to-close
StratLab Breadth Index
59.6 to 47.3
Monday to Friday
04 Days like today
04 days like today
In 49 similar past instances, NIFTY averaged -0.11% over the next 5 days, with a worst case of -4.84%.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 49 · tier: phase_trend_risk · today's exact signature has no prior occurrence
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | +0.23% | +0.14% | 57% | −2.11% |
| Next 5 sessions | −0.11% | −0.32% | 47% | −4.84% |
| Next 10 sessions | +0.28% | +0.52% | 57% | −8.48% |
| Next 20 sessions | +0.55% | +0.19% | 51% | −5.63% |
The price-breadth divergence is a cautionary setup; historical analogs lean negative.
Defensive: high-risk regime with weak breadth.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Confirm
NIFTY holds above 24334.3 and breadth recovers above 59.6.
Watch
NIFTY tests 24334.3 but MHI remains below 46.99.
Break
NIFTY closes below 24334.3 and breadth drops under 47.3.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- The +0.51% weekly gain shows buyers are still active at 24334.3.
- MHI at 46.99 is near the lower quartile, suggesting short-term support.
Lines up bearish
- Breadth fell from 59.6 to 47.3, signaling a thinning rally.
- In 49 similar analogs, the 5-day forward return averaged -0.11% with a worst case of -4.84%.
Net read: The rally's divergence and negative historical analog tilt the outlook cautious.
A 0.51% NIFTY gain accompanied by a breadth drop from 59.6 to 47.3 leaves the market in a fragile state.
Regime
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