The StratLab Weekly
No. 21 · Week ending Friday 10 Jul 2026 · NSE, data through close
Weekly Edition · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Risk eased 2 tiers to Moderate.
NIFTY −0.91% to 24,207. A multi-tier risk move in one session is rare — the engine's five-tier scale rarely skips a step.
What happenedNIFTY −0.91% to 24,207. Risk eased 2 tiers to Moderate.
The tensionMarket Health is Healthy Uptrend at Moderate risk, 45th percentile.
Net readA tactical move inside a fragile backdrop.
Nifty Close
24,206.90
−0.91%
Market Phase
🟢 Healthy Uptrend
1 sessions · ↑ improving
Risk
Moderate
confidence 100
FII Idx Fut
−254.7K
week-end
Walls
24.2–24.3K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
Risk eased 2 tiers to Moderate.
Positioning over the last 12 weeks
FII net index futures · 12 weeks · '000 contracts · endpoint = 10 Jul · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: A multi-tier risk move in one session is rare — the engine's five-tier scale rarely skips a step.
02 The turn
What changed today
What this means: High → Moderate · confidence 100
03 The catch
Market Health reads Healthy Uptrend
Market health over the last 12 weeks
Market Health Index · 12 weeks · 0–100 · endpoint = 10 Jul · percentiles vs 1,237 sessions
What this means: the index moved; Market Health's 45th-percentile read says the internals haven't confirmed it yet.
Adv / Decl days
3 / 2
of the week
Week range
23,882–24,430
close-to-close
StratLab Breadth Index
66.2 to 59.6
Monday to Friday
04 Days like today
51 sessions like this one.
Every session sharing today's Market Health signature — healthy uptrend, Moderate risk — 51 of them on record.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 51 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | +0.13% | +0.14% | 59% | −1.50% |
| Next 5 sessions | −0.02% | +0.22% | 51% | −5.77% |
| Next 10 sessions | −0.02% | +0.15% | 52% | −7.62% |
| Next 20 sessions | +0.16% | −0.24% | 49% | −11.96% |
This compares today against every session sharing the same Market Health signature, regardless of what triggered it.
Conditions like today historically favored caution, with exposure kept tight.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Market Phase exits upward
Healthy Uptrend runs a median of 1 session(s) (max 7) — this is session 1. 55% of exits went up.
Market Health crosses the 50 midline
MHI at 64.0 — a close back above 50 would end the 45th-percentile read.
Phase slips to Bear Market
0.0% of Healthy Uptrend exits went straight to Bear — the conditions analog's worst 5-session outcome (−5.77%) lives on that path.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- Risk eased 2 tiers to Moderate.
Lines up bearish
- Market Health 45th percentile · Moderate risk
- Conditions analog: −0.02% avg next 5 · 51% win
Net read: A tactical move inside a fragile backdrop.
Risk eased 2 tiers to Moderate. A tactical move inside a fragile backdrop.
Regime
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