The StratLab Weekly
No. 19 · Week ending Thursday 25 Jun 2026 · NSE, data through close
Weekly Edition · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Market Health just moved from Healthy Uptrend to Transition.
NIFTY −0.19% to 24,056. A phase transition means the health engine's six-state read of market conditions changed today, not just the index price.
What happenedNIFTY −0.19% to 24,056. Market Health just moved from Healthy Uptrend to Transition.
The tensionMarket Health is Transition at Elevated risk, 40th percentile.
Net readA tactical move inside a fragile backdrop.
Nifty Close
24,056.00
−0.19%
Market Phase
⚪ Transition
1 sessions · → stable
Risk
Elevated
confidence 35
FII Idx Fut
−223.8K
week-end
Walls
24.0–24.2K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
Market Health just moved from Healthy Uptrend to Transition.
Positioning over the last 12 weeks
FII net index futures · 12 weeks · '000 contracts · endpoint = 25 Jun · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: A phase transition means the health engine's six-state read of market conditions changed today, not just the index price.
02 The turn
What changed today
What this means: Healthy Uptrend → Transition · MHI 60.9 → 60.0
03 The catch
Market Health reads Transition
Market health over the last 12 weeks
Market Health Index · 12 weeks · 0–100 · endpoint = 25 Jun · percentiles vs 1,227 sessions
What this means: the index moved; Market Health's 40th-percentile read says the internals haven't confirmed it yet.
Adv / Decl days
2 / 2
of the week
Week range
23,824–24,103
close-to-close
StratLab Breadth Index
78.2 to 65.3
Monday to Friday
04 Days like today
13 sessions like this one.
Every session sharing today's Market Health signature — transition, Elevated risk — 13 of them on record.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 13 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | +0.19% | +0.49% | 54% | −1.00% |
| Next 5 sessions | −0.36% | −0.69% | 46% | −3.43% |
| Next 10 sessions | +0.10% | −1.21% | 46% | −5.03% |
| Next 20 sessions | +1.32% | +0.78% | 69% | −5.33% |
This compares today against every session sharing the same Market Health signature, regardless of what triggered it.
Conditions like today historically favored caution, with exposure kept tight.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Market Phase exits upward
Transition runs a median of 1 session(s) (max 9) — this is session 1. 52% of exits went up.
Market Health crosses the 50 midline
MHI at 60.0 — a close back above 50 would end the 40th-percentile read.
Phase slips to Bear Market
21.4% of Transition exits went straight to Bear — the conditions analog's worst 5-session outcome (−3.43%) lives on that path.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- Market Health just moved from Healthy Uptrend to Transition.
Lines up bearish
- Market Health 40th percentile · Elevated risk
- Conditions analog: −0.36% avg next 5 · 46% win
Net read: A tactical move inside a fragile backdrop.
Market Health just moved from Healthy Uptrend to Transition. A tactical move inside a fragile backdrop.
Regime
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