No. 15 · Week ending Friday 29 May 2026 · NSE, data through close
Weekly Edition · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Risk jumped 2 tiers to Very High.
Nifty drops 2.01% as risk surges to Very High, entering Bear Market.
What happenedRisk escalated from Elevated to Very High in a single session.
The tensionTwo-tier risk jump hits an already Weakening trend, raising the odds of a deeper pullback.
Net readBearish
Nifty Close
23,547.75
−2.01%
Market Phase
🔴 Bear Market
1 sessions · ↓ weakening
MHI
31.29
9th %ile
Risk
Very High
confidence 10
FII Idx Fut
−201.3K
week-end
Walls
23.5–23.6K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
The Crowd
Positioning over the last 12 weeks
FII net index futures · 12 weeks · '000 contracts · endpoint = 29 May · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: Nifty fell 2.01% to 23,547.75. The broad sell-off reflected a sudden shift in sentiment.
02 The turn
The Turn
What this means: Risk vaulted from Elevated to Very High; a rare multi-tier jump that signals a potential regime change.
03 The catch
Market Health
Market health over the last 12 weeks
Market Health Index · 12 weeks · 0–100 · endpoint = 29 May · percentiles vs 1,208 sessions
What this means: Bear Market phase, Weakening trend, Very High risk. StratLab Breadth Index at 31.29 (8.6th percentile) highlights extreme fragility.
Adv / Decl days
2 / 2
of the week
Week range
23,548–24,032
close-to-close
StratLab Breadth Index
51.1 to 44.9
Monday to Friday
04 Days like today
Days Like Today
From 112 similar conditions, the 5-day forward average was +0.4%, with a worst-case -4.86%.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 112 · tier: exact
Horizon
Avg
Median
Win rate
Worst
Next session
+0.15%
+0.14%
54%
−3.24%
Next 5 sessions
+0.40%
+0.26%
55%
−4.86%
Next 10 sessions
+0.48%
+0.33%
53%
−7.37%
Next 20 sessions
+1.13%
+0.68%
61%
−8.66%
Conditions like today historically favored a mild +0.4% average return, but Very High risk and low StratLab Breadth Index percentile warn of asymmetric downside.
Bearish
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Risk returns to Elevated
A retreat back to Elevated risk would suggest the spike was an outlier and the Bear phase is stabilizing.
Trend Weakening deepens
If the trend continues to Weaken alongside Very High risk, analogs show an elevated chance of testing the worst-case -4.86% scenario.
StratLab Breadth Index extends losses
A further decline in the Breadth Index would entrench the Bear Market, potentially accelerating the move toward lower levels.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
112 matching days averaged +0.4% forward 5-day return
Rare 2-tier risk jumps can sometimes mark a fear climax
Low Breadth Index percentile may attract dip-buying if risk quickly subsides
Lines up bearish
Risk at Very High with Weakening trend historically favors continued downside
StratLab Breadth Index at 8.6th percentile fits deep Bear phases
Worst-case analog of -4.86% reveals significant tail risk
Net read: Bearish with elevated tail risk
The 2.01% drop and two-tier risk jump confirm a Bear Market start. While historical setups hold a slight positive edge, the Weakening trend and weak breadth argue that rallies are likely to be sold. Conditions like today demand caution over aggression.