The StratLab Weekly
No. 8 · Week ending Friday 10 Apr 2026 · NSE, data through close
Weekly Edition · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Risk eased 2 tiers to Moderate.
NIFTY +4.71% to 24,051. A multi-tier risk move in one session is rare — the engine's five-tier scale rarely skips a step.
What happenedNIFTY +4.71% to 24,051. Risk eased 2 tiers to Moderate.
The tensionMarket Health is Transition at Moderate risk, 42nd percentile.
Net readConditions broadly line up with the move.
Nifty Close
24,050.60
+4.71%
Market Phase
⚪ Transition
7 sessions · ↑ improving
Risk
Moderate
confidence 70
FII Idx Fut
−206.2K
week-end
01 The crowd
Risk eased 2 tiers to Moderate.
Positioning over the last 12 weeks
FII net index futures · 12 weeks · '000 contracts · endpoint = 10 Apr · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: A multi-tier risk move in one session is rare — the engine's five-tier scale rarely skips a step.
02 The turn
What changed today
What this means: High → Moderate · confidence 70
03 The catch
Market Health reads Transition
Market health over the last 12 weeks
Market Health Index · 12 weeks · 0–100 · endpoint = 10 Apr · percentiles vs 1,178 sessions
What this means: the internals broadly agree with today's move.
Adv / Decl days
4 / 1
of the week
Week range
22,968–24,051
close-to-close
StratLab Breadth Index
44.4 to 89.4
Monday to Friday
04 Days like today
6 sessions like this one.
Every session sharing today's Market Health signature — transition, Moderate risk — 6 of them on record.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 6 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | +0.11% | −0.08% | 50% | −1.23% |
| Next 5 sessions | +0.26% | +1.05% | 67% | −4.17% |
| Next 10 sessions | +0.08% | +0.98% | 50% | −5.32% |
| Next 20 sessions | −0.41% | −1.26% | 50% | −4.98% |
This compares today against every session sharing the same Market Health signature, regardless of what triggered it.
Conditions like today historically favored staying with the move.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Market Phase exits upward
Transition runs a median of 1 session(s) (max 9) — this is session 7. 53% of exits went up.
Market Health crosses the 50 midline
MHI at 61.4 — a close back above 50 would end the 42nd-percentile read.
Phase slips to Bear Market
19.6% of Transition exits went straight to Bear — the conditions analog's worst 5-session outcome (−4.17%) lives on that path.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- Risk eased 2 tiers to Moderate.
Lines up bearish
- Market Health 42nd percentile · Moderate risk
- Conditions analog: +0.26% avg next 5 · 67% win
Net read: Conditions broadly line up with the move.
Risk eased 2 tiers to Moderate. Conditions broadly line up with the move.
Regime
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