The StratLab Weekly
No. 7 · Week ending Thursday 2 Apr 2026 · NSE, data through close
Weekly Edition · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data

NIFTY Closes +1.71% Higher

A strong week, but StratLab Breadth Index at 43.88 signals fragility.

What happenedNIFTY rose 1.71% to 22,713.
The tensionGain clashed with Market Health still in the 19th percentile.
Net readBounce lifted breadth to 43.88, but remains High risk.
Nifty Close
22,713.10
+1.71%
Market Phase
⚪ Transition
2 sessions · ↑ improving
MHI
43.88
20th %ile
Risk
High
confidence 60
FII Idx Fut
−268.0K
week-end
Walls
—
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd

01 The Crowd

Positioning over the last 12 weeks
FII net index futures · 12 weeks · '000 contracts · endpoint = 2 Apr · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: Crowd caught short, scrambling to price in the 1.71% surge.
02 The turn

02 The Turn

What this means: Market Health improved to Transition, now in its 2nd week.
03 The catch

03 The Catch (Market Health)

Market health over the last 12 weeks
Market Health Index · 12 weeks · 0–100 · endpoint = 2 Apr · percentiles vs 1,173 sessions
What this means: StratLab Breadth Index at 43.88 (19th percentile) — still deeply weak.
Adv / Decl days
1 / 2
of the week
Week range
22,331–22,713
close-to-close
StratLab Breadth Index
11.8 to 32.0
Monday to Friday
04 Days like today

04 Days Like Today

Transition / Improving / High risk.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 8 · tier: exact
HorizonAvgMedianWin rateWorst
Next session+0.04%+0.26%62%−2.09%
Next 5 sessions+0.56%+1.26%83%−6.11%
Next 10 sessions+1.10%+1.71%50%−6.12%
Next 20 sessions+1.24%−0.93%33%−3.03%
8 matches; forward 5-day avg +0.56%, worst -6.11%.

Conditions like today historically favored a +0.56% 5-day edge, but with a -6.11% downside tail.

05 Tomorrow's tripwires

Three checks that settle the argument

Confirm above 22,713
A close above 22,713 confirms the breakout.
Watch 22,331
A pullback to 22,331 would test the week's support.
Break below 22,331
A break of 22,331 exposes the -6.11% worst-case analog.
The ledger

Where that leaves us

Lines up bullish
  • Weekly gain of 1.71%
  • Historical edge: +0.56% 5-day forward
  • Transition phase often precedes mean reversion
Lines up bearish
  • Breadth at 19th percentile — deeply weak
  • High risk environment with -6.11% worst case
  • Only 1 up day vs 2 down days

Net read: Net: The bounce is encouraging, but confirmation needed. Historical edge favors modest upside, yet downside risk remains elevated.

NIFTY's 1.71% weekly gain lifted the StratLab Breadth Index to 43.88, but at the 19th percentile the recovery is fragile. Analogs point to a +0.56% 5-day edge, but the -6.11% worst-case keeps risk high.

Regime