The StratLab Daily
No. 179 · Friday 13 Nov 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Market Health Transitions to Healthy Uptrend Following 0.61% Retracement
The Market Health Index (MHI) eased from 83.2 to 79.34, reflecting a shift out of Strong Bull state.
What happenedThe index settled at 25144.3 after a single-day drop of 0.61%.
The tensionWhile the trend remains stable, confidence shifted to 65.0 with a new phase run length of 1 day.
Net readHistorical analogs suggest a muted near-term outlook following the phase step-down.
Nifty Close
25,144.30
−0.61%
Market Phase
🟢 Healthy Uptrend
session 1 · → stable
Risk
Moderate
confidence 65
FII Idx Fut
−55.9K
99.6th %ile
Walls
25.0–25.2K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
Phase Transition
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 13 Nov · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: The market state moved from Strong Bull to Healthy Uptrend today. This transition follows a 0.61% retreat in the index.
02 The turn
Health Score Reset
What this means: MHI adjusted down from 83.2 to 79.34. The current reading sits at the 69.1 percentile.
03 The catch
Market Health Profile
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 13 Nov · percentiles vs 1,322 sessions
What this means: Market risk is currently rated moderate with 65.0 confidence. The current Healthy Uptrend regime has a run length of 1 day.
Phase
🟢 Healthy Uptrend
risk Moderate
Participation
49.4949
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
81.2
94th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
Analog Outcomes
Across 65 matching historical terrain instances, forward 5-day returns averaged -0.11% with a worst outcome of -5.77%.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 65 · tier: phase_risk · today's exact signature has no prior occurrence
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | +0.07% | +0.10% | 57% | −1.64% |
| Next 5 sessions | −0.11% | −0.09% | 48% | −5.77% |
| Next 10 sessions | −0.16% | −0.07% | 47% | −7.62% |
| Next 20 sessions | +0.16% | +0.19% | 53% | −11.96% |
Analog patterns point to slight forward consolidation.
Conditions like today historically favored disciplined risk management over aggressive expansion.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Regime Re-acceleration
A recovery pushing MHI back toward 83.2 would confirm a return to Strong Bull.
Percentile Stability
Holding the 69.1 percentile rank keeps the current uptrend structure intact.
Tail Risk Breach
Decline beyond the historical worst-case return of -5.77% signals structural deterioration.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- Market Health remains in a Healthy Uptrend phase
- MHI percentile remains solid at 69.1
Lines up bearish
- Index declined 0.61% to close at 25144.3
- Forward 5-day average analog return stands at -0.11%
Net read: The market transitioned to Healthy Uptrend as MHI stepped down to 79.34.
Conditions like today historically favored selective exposure control during initial phase resets.
Regime
BEAR