No. 178 · Thursday 12 Nov 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
A clean range break with positive participation behind it
Nifty reaches 25299.35, its highest close in 173 sessions, supported by broad advance-decline breadth.
What happenedNifty gained 0.18% to close at 25299.35.
The tensionTurnover rose to 1.08× the 20-day average with 295 advances against 196 declines.
Net readPrice and participation aligned to shift the burden of proof to sellers.
Nifty Close
25,299.35
+0.18%
Market Phase
🟢 Strong Bull
session 1 · ↑ improving
MHI
83.17
79th %ile
Risk
Low
confidence 100
FII Idx Fut
−49.7K
100.0th %ile
Walls
25.2–25.4K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
01 / THE CROWD
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 12 Nov · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: The market logged 295 advancing stocks against 196 declining stocks on volume of 1.08× the 20-day average. Buyers pushed Nifty to 25299.35.
02 The turn
02 / THE TURN
What this means: The close represents the highest level in 173 sessions. Participation confirms the breakout, shifting short-term momentum in favor of buyers.
03 The catch
03 / THE CATCH
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 12 Nov · percentiles vs 1,321 sessions
What this means: The Market Health Index (MHI) printed at 83.17, placing market health in the 78.7 percentile. The tape operates in a Strong Bull phase with Low risk and 100.0% confidence.
Phase
🟢 Strong Bull
risk Low
Participation
60.202
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
83.5
95th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
04 / DAYS LIKE TODAY
Across 264 historical matches, similar conditions yielded a 5-day average forward return of 0.32% with a worst case of -6.33%.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 264 · tier: exact
Horizon
Avg
Median
Win rate
Worst
Next session
+0.07%
+0.07%
57%
−5.93%
Next 5 sessions
+0.32%
+0.58%
60%
−6.33%
Next 10 sessions
+0.49%
+0.61%
61%
−9.20%
Next 20 sessions
+0.85%
+1.12%
65%
−12.41%
Historical analogs across 264 instances indicate a 5-day forward average return of 0.32%.
Conditions like today historically favored holding long posture while relying on low risk parameters.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
CONFIRMATION
Sustained trading above 25299.35 with market turnover holding above the 20-day average.
WATCH
Divergence between index price progress and advance-decline breadth.
BREAKDOWN
A fall below recent breakout levels alongside a drop in the Market Health Index (MHI).
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
Nifty reached its highest close in 173 sessions at 25299.35.
Market Health Index (MHI) of 83.17 confirms Low risk under a Strong Bull phase.
Lines up bearish
Historical worst 5-day outcome in similar conditions reached -6.33%.
The current Strong Bull phase is on run length day 1.
Net read: Range breaks supported by expanding breadth and low market risk favor trend continuation.
Conditions like today historically favored upside continuation as Nifty cleared a 173-session high with Low market risk.