The StratLab Daily
No. 159 · Wednesday 14 Oct 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
12 names ran together on volume — the day's coordinated move.
The index closed at 22622.7, down -0.44%, while positioning concentrated in a select group of stocks.
What happenedThe tape fell -0.44% to close at 22622.7, while 12 names ran together on elevated volume.
The tensionThat coordinated move sits inside a Bear Market phase: trend Improving, risk Very High.
Net readSelective leadership is visible, but the broader health signal remains fragile.
Nifty Close
22,622.70
−0.44%
Market Phase
🔴 Bear Market
session 14 · ↑ improving
Risk
Very High
confidence 70
FII Idx Fut
−296.7K
4.1th %ile
Walls
22.5–22.7K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
01 | The crowd
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 14 Oct · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: 12 names ran together on volume: TARIL +15.0%, ELECON +10.7%, and IDBI +9.0% led the listed cluster.
02 The turn
02 | The turn
What this means: The turn was coordinated positioning beneath a softer index: close 22622.7, ret1 -0.44%.
03 The catch
03 | The catch
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 14 Oct · percentiles vs 1,302 sessions
What this means: Market Health Index (MHI) is 31.53 at the 10.2 percentile, with Bear Market phase, Improving trend, and Very High risk.
Phase
🔴 Bear Market
risk Very High
Participation
49.5968
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
34.6
33th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
04 | Days like today
Eight matches produced a +0.07% average five-day outcome, with a -2.21% worst outcome.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 8 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | −0.66% | −0.90% | 25% | −2.65% |
| Next 5 sessions | +0.07% | −0.35% | 38% | −2.21% |
| Next 10 sessions | +2.31% | +1.53% | 83% | −0.27% |
| Next 20 sessions | +1.45% | −0.94% | 33% | −3.38% |
Conditions like today historically favored a +0.07% five-day average, but the downside case reached -2.21%.
Defensive, with selective leadership.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Confirm | coordinated volume leadership
TARIL +15.0% on 13.8×, ELECON +10.7% on 9.5×, IDBI +9.0% on 12.2×.
Watch | improving trend, very high risk
Market Health Index (MHI) 31.53, at the 10.2 percentile, with confidence 70.0.
Break | Bear Market phase persists
Bear Market phase has run 14 sessions.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- Coordinated volume: TARIL +15.0% on 13.8×.
- Improving trend.
- Eight historical matches averaged +0.07% over five days.
Lines up bearish
- Very High risk.
- Market Health Index (MHI) 31.53 at the 10.2 percentile.
- The worst historical outcome was -2.21% over five days.
Net read: A coordinated pocket of strength is fighting a weak, high-risk market backdrop.
The signal is selective coordination, not a clean regime turn: the index fell -0.44% and Market Health Index (MHI) is 31.53 in a Bear Market phase.
Regime
BULL