The StratLab Daily
No. 158 · Tuesday 13 Oct 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Dealers flipped from accelerant to shock-absorber.
The index rose 1.6% to 22721.95 as net gamma moved to +44,655 from -44,233 prior.
What happenedThe turn happened: dealer conditions moved from Acceleration Risk to Stabilizing.
The tensionThe turn is stabilizing, but Market Health Index (MHI) is 16.77 in a Bear Market with Very High risk.
Net readNet: a shock-absorbing tape inside a Weakening, Very High-risk regime.
Nifty Close
22,721.95
+1.60%
Market Phase
🔴 Bear Market
session 13 · ↓ weakening
Risk
Very High
confidence 25
FII Idx Fut
−289.5K
6.5th %ile
Walls
22.7–22.8K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
01 The crowd
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 13 Oct · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: The session ended 1.6% higher at 22721.95, while the regime remains Bear Market.
02 The turn
02 The turn
What this means: Dealers flipped from accelerant to shock-absorber: net gamma +44,655 versus -44,233 prior.
03 The catch
03 The catch (Market Health)
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 13 Oct · percentiles vs 1,301 sessions
What this means: Market Health Index (MHI) is 16.77, at the 3.2 percentile, with Bear Market, Weakening trend and Very High risk.
Phase
🔴 Bear Market
risk Very High
Participation
36.0887
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
29.6
23th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
04 Days like today
Across 143 matches, conditions like today historically favored a 0.3% average five-day outcome, with a -5.31% worst case.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 143 · tier: phase_trend_risk
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | +0.11% | +0.11% | 54% | −3.24% |
| Next 5 sessions | +0.30% | +0.21% | 52% | −5.31% |
| Next 10 sessions | +0.33% | −0.02% | 50% | −7.37% |
| Next 20 sessions | +0.89% | +0.72% | 62% | −8.66% |
The historical range is asymmetric: 0.3% average five-day outcome against a -5.31% worst case.
Stabilizing dealer conditions, but no regime repair: Bear Market, Weakening, Very High risk.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Shock-absorber conditions
The recorded regime is Stabilizing, with net gamma +44,655.
Health remains the watch
Market Health Index (MHI) is 16.77, with Weakening trend and Very High risk.
The historical downside tail
The five-day analog worst case is -5.31%.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- Net gamma +44,655 versus -44,233 prior.
- Regime flipped from Acceleration Risk to Stabilizing.
- Conditions like today historically favored a 0.3% average five-day outcome.
Lines up bearish
- Bear Market phase with Weakening trend.
- Very High risk with Market Health Index (MHI) 16.77.
- Five-day analog worst case: -5.31%.
Net read: Stabilizing dealer conditions do not erase a Bear Market, Weakening trend and Very High-risk backdrop.
The turn is real, but the backdrop is not repaired: dealers moved to Stabilizing while Market Health Index (MHI) remained 16.77 in Bear Market.
Regime
BULL