No. 151 · Thursday 1 Oct 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Market Health Index (MHI) sits in the bottom decile of its history
The tape closed at 22,421.95, down 0.88%, with Bear Market, Weakening trend and Very High risk.
What happenedThe tape fell 0.88% to 22,421.95 as Bear Market conditions reached a run length of 6.
The tensionThe tension is clear: weakening trend and Very High risk meet an unusually depressed health reading.
Net readNet stance is defensive: Bear Market, Weakening trend and Very High risk.
Nifty Close
22,421.95
−0.88%
Market Phase
🔴 Bear Market
session 6 · ↓ weakening
MHI
11.43
2nd %ile
Risk
Very High
confidence 10
FII Idx Fut
−310.2K
1.2th %ile
Walls
22.3–22.5K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
01 the crowd
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 1 Oct · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: The crowd is under pressure after a 0.88% decline to 22,421.95.
02 The turn
02 the turn
What this means: The turn remains weak: the trend is Weakening and the Bear Market run length is 6.
03 The catch
03 the catch — Market Health
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 1 Oct · percentiles vs 1,294 sessions
What this means: The Market Health Index (MHI) is 11.43, at the 1.5 percentile of its history; risk remains Very High.
Phase
🔴 Bear Market
risk Very High
Participation
43.9516
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
12.1
2th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
04 days like today
Conditions like today historically favored a 0.36% average five-session outcome across 136 historical conditions.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 136 · tier: exact
Horizon
Avg
Median
Win rate
Worst
Next session
+0.14%
+0.12%
54%
−3.24%
Next 5 sessions
+0.36%
+0.24%
53%
−4.86%
Next 10 sessions
+0.41%
+0.21%
52%
−7.37%
Next 20 sessions
+1.11%
+0.75%
63%
−8.66%
The historical range is wide: 0.36% average five-session outcome versus -4.86% at worst across 136 conditions.
Defensive: historical conditions favored a 0.36% average five-session outcome, with a -4.86% worst case.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Confirm
Market Health Index (MHI) remains at 11.43, with Bear Market, Weakening trend and Very High risk.
Watch
Historical conditions produced a 0.36% average five-session outcome across 136 cases, against a -4.86% worst case.
Break
No trigger analog is present.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
MHI is at 11.43, in the bottom decile of its history.
Conditions like today historically favored a 0.36% average five-session outcome.
Lines up bearish
Bear Market phase with Weakening trend.
Very High risk and a -0.88% session.
Historical worst case: -4.86% across 136 conditions.
Net read: The historical rebound tendency is constructive, but current market health remains deeply impaired.
Market Health Index (MHI) is the decisive catch: conditions like today historically favored a 0.36% average five-session outcome, while the tape remains Bear Market, Weakening and Very High risk.