The StratLab Daily
No. 150 · Wednesday 30 Sep 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Market Health Index (MHI) is at 20.25, the 3.9th percentile.
Market health sits in the bottom decile of its own history, while historical conditions still show modestly positive 5-day outcomes.
What happenedThe session closed at 22620.45, down 0.42%.
The tensionThe tension is between a Bear Market phase and historical analogues with positive 5-day averages.
Net readNet: weak current health, but historically favorable near-term outcomes.
Nifty Close
22,620.45
−0.42%
Market Phase
🔴 Bear Market
session 5 · ↓ weakening
Risk
Very High
confidence 25
FII Idx Fut
−282.9K
4.9th %ile
Walls
22.5–22.7K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
01 | The crowd
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 30 Sep · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: The close was 22620.45, a 0.42% decline.
02 The turn
02 | The turn
What this means: The signal sits at MHI 20.25, at the 3.9th percentile of its history.
03 The catch
03 | The catch: Market Health
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 30 Sep · percentiles vs 1,293 sessions
What this means: Bear Market, weakening trend, very high risk; confidence is 25.0.
Phase
🔴 Bear Market
risk Very High
Participation
58.2661
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
17.3
7th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
04 | Days like today
The trigger analogue covers 22 matches: a 0.18% average 5-day gain and a 72.7% 5-day win rate.
avg NIFTY forward return · 22 episodes · all recorded history
Episodes matched22
Next 5 sessions, avg+0.18%
Win rate, 5 sessions72.7%
Next 10 sessions, avg-0.81%
Worst 5-session outcome-12.15%
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 140 · tier: phase_trend_risk
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | +0.10% | +0.10% | 54% | −3.24% |
| Next 5 sessions | +0.34% | +0.24% | 53% | −5.31% |
| Next 10 sessions | +0.40% | +0.21% | 52% | −7.37% |
| Next 20 sessions | +1.15% | +0.80% | 64% | −8.66% |
Conditions like today historically favored a 0.34% average 5-day gain, but the worst outcome was -5.31%.
Modest historical rebound bias, set against a Bear Market phase and very high risk.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Confirm
Trigger matches recorded 72.7% positive 5-day outcomes across 22 cases.
Watch
The broader 140-match set averaged a 0.34% 5-day gain.
Break
The broader set still contained a -5.31% 5-day outcome.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- MHI 20.25 is at the 3.9th percentile.
- Trigger matches averaged a 0.18% 5-day gain.
- The trigger win rate was 72.7%.
Lines up bearish
- Bear Market phase, weakening trend, very high risk.
- Confidence is 25.0.
- The worst 5-day analogue was -5.31%.
Net read: A weak health backdrop meets modestly positive historical forward outcomes.
Market Health Index (MHI) remains in a Bear Market phase, while 22 trigger matches point to a 0.18% average 5-day gain and 72.7% positive outcomes.
Regime
BULL