No. 149 · Tuesday 29 Sep 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Market Health Index (MHI) sits at 21.26, in the 4th percentile of its history.
The market closed at 22,716.2, down 0.28%, while conditions remain a Bear Market with a recovering trend and Very High risk.
What happenedThe index slipped 0.28% to 22,716.2.
The tensionThe trigger analog is constructive, but Market Health remains deeply impaired.
Net readConditions like today historically favored a positive 5-day outcome, while the broader health signal remains fragile.
Nifty Close
22,716.20
−0.28%
Market Phase
🔴 Bear Market
session 4 · ↑ recovering
MHI
21.26
4th %ile
Risk
Very High
confidence 45
FII Idx Fut
−267.3K
9.3th %ile
Walls
22.7–22.8K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
01 the crowd
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 29 Sep · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: The market closed at 22,716.2 after a 0.28% decline. The crowd remains inside a Bear Market phase.
02 The turn
02 the turn
What this means: The trend is Recovering after a phase run of 4. The trigger analog points to a 0.18% average 5-day outcome, with a 72.7% win rate.
03 The catch
03 the catch
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 29 Sep · percentiles vs 1,292 sessions
What this means: Market Health Index (MHI) is 21.26 at the 4.1th percentile, with Very High risk. Extreme readings like this usually resolve rather than persist.
Phase
🔴 Bear Market
risk Very High
Participation
65.3226
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
16.6
6th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
04 days like today
Across 22 trigger matches, the average 5-day outcome was 0.18%, with a 72.7% win rate.
avg NIFTY forward return · 22 episodes · all recorded history
Episodes matched22
Next 5 sessions, avg+0.18%
Win rate, 5 sessions72.7%
Next 10 sessions, avg-0.81%
Worst 5-session outcome-12.15%
Across 70 conditions matches, the average 5-day outcome was -0.05%, with a worst outcome of -4.77%.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 70 · tier: exact
Horizon
Avg
Median
Win rate
Worst
Next session
−0.20%
−0.16%
34%
−4.78%
Next 5 sessions
−0.05%
−0.15%
48%
−4.77%
Next 10 sessions
+0.28%
+0.48%
54%
−7.12%
Next 20 sessions
+1.34%
+0.87%
64%
−6.63%
The trigger signal is constructive, but Market Health remains in the Bear Market phase with Very High risk.
Cautious recovery bias.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Confirm
The Recovering trend persists while Market Health improves from 21.26.
Watch
The 22-match trigger analog carries a 0.18% average 5-day outcome and a 72.7% win rate.
Break
A return to persistent Bear Market conditions would challenge the recovering trend.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
Recovering trend
22 trigger matches
72.7% 5-day win rate
Lines up bearish
Bear Market phase
Very High risk
MHI at 21.26
Net read: A constructive trigger sits against bottom-decile market health. The balance is cautious, not cleanly bullish.
Conditions like today historically favored a positive 5-day outcome, but Market Health Index (MHI) at 21.26 keeps the recovery fragile.