The StratLab Daily
No. 148 · Monday 28 Sep 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
A -1.56% down day, with the selling broadening.
The close was 22,780.25 as the StratLab Breadth Index showed A/D at 64/433 and turnover at 0.81× the 20-day average.
What happenedThe crowd sold broadly, not selectively: A/D was 64/433 against a -1.56% close.
The tensionThe turn is weaker participation inside a Bear Market phase, with Very High risk.
Net readConditions like today historically favored a 0.38% average 5-day outcome, but the worst forward outcome was -4.86%.
Nifty Close
22,780.25
−1.56%
Market Phase
🔴 Bear Market
session 3 · ↓ weakening
Risk
Very High
confidence 10
FII Idx Fut
−312.0K
0.4th %ile
Walls
22.7–22.9K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
01 | The crowd
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 28 Sep · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: The StratLab Breadth Index captured a wide retreat: A/D 64/433 with the close down -1.56%.
02 The turn
02 | The turn
What this means: The tape has turned weaker: Bear Market phase, Weakening trend, and Very High risk.
03 The catch
03 | The catch
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 28 Sep · percentiles vs 1,291 sessions
What this means: Market Health Index (MHI) is 4.96, at the 0.1 percentile, with confidence 10.0.
Phase
🔴 Bear Market
risk Very High
Participation
53.629
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
18.0
7th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
04 | Days like today
There were 135 matches, producing a 0.38% average 5-day outcome; the worst was -4.86%.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 135 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | +0.14% | +0.13% | 55% | −3.24% |
| Next 5 sessions | +0.38% | +0.24% | 53% | −4.86% |
| Next 10 sessions | +0.47% | +0.31% | 52% | −7.37% |
| Next 20 sessions | +1.17% | +0.76% | 64% | −8.66% |
Conditions like today historically favored a 0.38% average 5-day outcome, with a -4.86% worst case.
Defensive
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
CONFIRM
The StratLab Breadth Index improves from A/D 64/433 while turnover recovers from 0.81× the 20-day average.
WATCH
Market Health Index (MHI) at 4.96, Bear Market phase, and Weakening trend keep the backdrop fragile.
BREAK
A/D 64/433, 0.81× turnover, and Very High risk remain aligned on the downside.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- 0.38% average 5-day outcome across 135 matches
- Historical average outcome was positive
Lines up bearish
- Bear Market phase
- Very High risk
- A/D 64/433
Net read: The historical average is constructive, but current Market Health is weak and risk is Very High.
Broad selling meets a Bear Market backdrop: the historical 0.38% average sits against a -4.86% worst case and Very High risk.
Regime
BULL