No. 147 · Friday 25 Sep 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Recovering health inside a Bear Market phase
The close rose 0.34% to 23,140.5, but the phase remains Bear Market with Very High risk.
What happenedThe index closed at 23,140.5, up 0.34%.
The tensionTrend reads Recovering while phase remains Bear Market.
Net readA recovering tape is emerging inside a Bear Market phase, with Very High risk.
Nifty Close
23,140.50
+0.34%
Market Phase
🔴 Bear Market
session 2 · ↑ recovering
MHI
33.23
11th %ile
Risk
Very High
confidence 45
FII Idx Fut
−312.0K
0.4th %ile
Walls
23.0–23.2K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
01 | the crowd
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 25 Sep · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: The broad tape remains in Bear Market phase despite the 0.34% rise.
02 The turn
02 | the turn
What this means: The signal moved from Weakening to Recovering. Trend and phase disagree briefly, which the finding identifies as how phase transitions usually begin.
03 The catch
03 | the catch — Market Health
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 25 Sep · percentiles vs 1,290 sessions
What this means: Market Health Index (MHI) is 33.23, at the 10.7 percentile, with Very High risk and 45.0% confidence.
Phase
🔴 Bear Market
risk Very High
Participation
40.3226
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
30.9
22th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
04 | days like today
Across 69 matches, conditions like today historically favored a -0.01% five-session average outcome. The worst five-session outcome was -4.77%.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 69 · tier: exact
Horizon
Avg
Median
Win rate
Worst
Next session
−0.18%
−0.15%
35%
−4.78%
Next 5 sessions
−0.01%
−0.07%
48%
−4.77%
Next 10 sessions
+0.33%
+0.58%
54%
−7.12%
Next 20 sessions
+1.34%
+0.87%
64%
−6.63%
Phase run length is 2.
Recovering trend, Bear Market phase, Very High risk.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
WIRE | recovering trend
Trend has shifted to Recovering, while the phase remains Bear Market.
WATCH | phase tension
Recovering trend and Bear Market phase remain out of step.
BREAK | risk backdrop
Very High risk remains the defining constraint.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
Trend: Recovering
Health: recovering
Lines up bearish
Phase: Bear Market
Risk: Very High
Five-session average: -0.01%; worst: -4.77%
Net read: A recovery signal is emerging, but it sits inside a Bear Market phase with Very High risk.
The net read is a Recovering trend inside a Bear Market phase, with Very High risk.