The StratLab Daily
No. 146 · Thursday 24 Sep 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Risk jumped 3 tiers to Very High.
Moderate → Very High · confidence 10. A rare multi-tier risk move reset the session's posture.
What happenedThe index fell 1.64% to 23,063.1 as risk moved from Moderate to Very High.
The tensionThe historical path was positive on average, but Market Health was already in a Bear Market and weakening.
Net readNet stance: defensive. The positive historical average does not remove the Very High-risk backdrop.
Nifty Close
23,063.10
−1.64%
Market Phase
🔴 Bear Market
session 1 · ↓ weakening
Risk
Very High
confidence 10
FII Idx Fut
−309.8K
0.4th %ile
Walls
23.0–23.2K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
01 | The crowd
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 24 Sep · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: The crowd met a sharp risk reset: the index closed at 23,063.1, down 1.64%.
02 The turn
02 | The turn
What this means: Risk jumped 3 tiers in one session, from Moderate to Very High. The move is rare on the five-tier scale.
03 The catch
03 | The catch — Market Health
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 24 Sep · percentiles vs 1,289 sessions
What this means: Market Health Index (MHI) was 5.12 at the 0.1 percentile: Bear Market, weakening, with Very High risk.
Phase
🔴 Bear Market
risk Very High
Participation
44.9597
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
29.9
21th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
04 | Days like today
Across 134 historical matches, conditions like today historically favored a +0.38% average five-day outcome, but the worst was -4.86%.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 134 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | +0.14% | +0.12% | 54% | −3.24% |
| Next 5 sessions | +0.38% | +0.24% | 53% | −4.86% |
| Next 10 sessions | +0.48% | +0.32% | 53% | −7.37% |
| Next 20 sessions | +1.17% | +0.76% | 64% | −8.66% |
The historical average was positive, but the downside outcome remained wide.
Defensive conditions, with the tape in a Bear Market and weakening.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
CONFIRM
Very High risk now sits alongside a weakening Bear Market.
WATCH
Historical matches carried a +0.38% average alongside a -4.86% worst outcome.
BREAK
A positive five-day path would not erase the Bear Market and weakening backdrop.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- 134 matches produced a +0.38% average five-day outcome.
- The historical average outcome was positive.
Lines up bearish
- Bear Market, weakening.
- Very High risk after a 3-tier jump.
- Worst five-day analog: -4.86%.
Net read: Defensive net: the historical average was positive, but Market Health remained Bear Market, weakening, and Very High risk.
The session's risk jump is the headline; Market Health remains Bear Market, weakening, and Very High risk.
Regime
BULL