No. 145 · Wednesday 23 Sep 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Risk eased 3 tiers to Moderate
Very High → Moderate in one session; confidence 90.
What happened01 — The crowd
The tensionRisk eased 3 tiers to Moderate, a rare one-session move.
Net readThe tape improved, but the historical path remains uneven.
Nifty Close
23,446.80
+0.50%
Market Phase
🟢 Healthy Uptrend
session 1 · ↑ improving
MHI
69.28
55th %ile
Risk
Moderate
confidence 90
FII Idx Fut
−298.6K
0.8th %ile
Walls
23.4–23.5K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
01 — The crowd
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 23 Sep · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: Risk eased 3 tiers to Moderate, from Very High.
02 The turn
02 — The turn
What this means: A multi-tier risk move reset the session’s tone; confidence was 90.
03 The catch
03 — The catch
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 23 Sep · percentiles vs 1,288 sessions
What this means: Market Health Index (MHI) is 69.28, with a Healthy Uptrend, Improving trend, and Moderate risk.
Phase
🟢 Healthy Uptrend
risk Moderate
Participation
49.5968
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
40.4
37th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
04 — Days like today
Conditions like today historically favored a -0.01% average over the next 5 days, across 52 matches.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 52 · tier: exact
Horizon
Avg
Median
Win rate
Worst
Next session
+0.13%
+0.14%
60%
−1.50%
Next 5 sessions
−0.01%
+0.29%
52%
−5.77%
Next 10 sessions
−0.05%
+0.15%
52%
−7.62%
Next 20 sessions
+0.20%
+0.08%
52%
−11.96%
The reference points are a -0.01% average and a -5.77% worst five-day outcome.
Constructive, with a historical downside skew.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
CONFIRM
Healthy Uptrend; risk is Moderate.
WATCH
MHI 69.28; the five-day average was -0.01% across 52 matches.
BREAK
The worst five-day outcome in the historical matches was -5.77%.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
Healthy Uptrend
Risk eased 3 tiers to Moderate
Confidence 90
Lines up bearish
-0.01% five-day average
-5.77% worst five-day outcome
Net read: Improving tape, but history keeps the edge conditional.
Risk moved from Very High to Moderate while the Healthy Uptrend remains Improving; conditions like today historically favored a -0.01% five-day average across 52 matches.