No. 144 · Tuesday 22 Sep 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Market Health Index (MHI) sits in the bottom decile of its history.
The trend is recovering, but the market remains in a Bear Market with Very High risk.
What happenedBear Market phase, recovering trend, Very High risk; phase run length 4.
The tensionThe recovering trend runs against deeply weak market health and Very High risk.
Net readNet: recovery is present, but the broader regime remains fragile.
Nifty Close
23,329.00
−0.36%
Market Phase
🔴 Bear Market
session 4 · ↑ recovering
MHI
30.13
8th %ile
Risk
Very High
confidence 45
FII Idx Fut
−302.9K
0.4th %ile
Walls
23.3–23.4K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
01 the crowd
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 22 Sep · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: The market closed at 23,329.0, down 0.36%. The crowd remains inside a Bear Market phase.
02 The turn
02 the turn
What this means: The trend is recovering, but no trigger analog is present. The turn is therefore incomplete.
03 The catch
03 the catch — Market Health
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 22 Sep · percentiles vs 1,287 sessions
What this means: MHI is 30.13 at the 8.2 percentile, placing market health in the bottom decile of its history.
Phase
🔴 Bear Market
risk Very High
Participation
51.0081
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
33.3
27th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
04 days like today
Conditions like today historically favored a flat five-day outcome: 0.0% on average across 68 matches, with -4.77% as the worst case.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 68 · tier: exact
Horizon
Avg
Median
Win rate
Worst
Next session
−0.19%
−0.16%
34%
−4.78%
Next 5 sessions
+0.00%
+0.00%
49%
−4.77%
Next 10 sessions
+0.33%
+0.58%
54%
−7.12%
Next 20 sessions
+1.34%
+0.87%
64%
−6.63%
Conditions like today historically favored a flat five-day outcome, but the worst case across 68 matches was -4.77%.
Cautious: recovering trend, Bear Market phase, Very High risk.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Recovering trend
The market trend is recovering, but no trigger analog is present.
Market Health
MHI is 30.13 at the 8.2 percentile, while risk remains Very High.
Bear Market persistence
The phase is Bear Market, with a run length of 4.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
Recovering trend.
68 matches averaged 0.0% over five days.
MHI extremes usually resolve, not persist.
Lines up bearish
Bear Market phase.
Very High risk.
MHI at 30.13 and the 8.2 percentile.
Net read: Recovery is visible, but weak market health keeps the setup fragile.
A recovering trend is offset by Market Health Index (MHI) readings in the bottom decile and Very High risk. Conditions like today historically favored a flat five-day outcome, with -4.77% as the worst case.