No. 143 · Monday 21 Sep 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Foreign money turned as Market Health stayed Bear Market.
FII cash −₹576 Cr after +₹600 Cr provisional; DII +₹2,797 Cr. FII net index futures -290,546, at the 1st percentile of the year.
What happenedThe trigger happened: FII cash moved to −₹576 Cr after +₹600 Cr provisional, while FII net index futures were -290,546.
The tensionDII flow was +₹2,797 Cr, but FII index futures reached -290,546, the 1st percentile of the year.
Net readThe net read is defensive: foreign flow turned negative while the close was +0.29% at 23,414.3.
Nifty Close
23,414.30
+0.29%
Market Phase
🔴 Bear Market
session 3 · ↓ weakening
MHI
23.25
5th %ile
Risk
Very High
confidence 25
FII Idx Fut
−290.5K
0.8th %ile
Walls
23.4–23.5K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
01 | The crowd
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 21 Sep · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: The crowd had a green close: 23,414.3, up 0.29%. The flow crowd turned as FII cash moved from +₹600 Cr provisional to −₹576 Cr.
02 The turn
02 | The turn
What this means: The turn was foreign: FII cash −₹576 Cr after +₹600 Cr provisional, with FII net index futures at -290,546. DII flow was +₹2,797 Cr.
03 The catch
03 | The catch — Market Health
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 21 Sep · percentiles vs 1,286 sessions
What this means: Market Health Index (MHI) is 23.25, in Bear Market, weakening, with very high risk. MHI percentile is 4.7, confidence is 25.0, and the phase has run 3.
Phase
🔴 Bear Market
risk Very High
Participation
47.5806
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
30.4
21th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
04 | Days like today
Across 137 matches, conditions like today historically favored a +0.37% five-day average, with a −5.31% worst outcome.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 137 · tier: phase_trend_risk
Horizon
Avg
Median
Win rate
Worst
Next session
+0.11%
+0.11%
54%
−3.24%
Next 5 sessions
+0.37%
+0.26%
54%
−5.31%
Next 10 sessions
+0.48%
+0.32%
53%
−7.37%
Next 20 sessions
+1.18%
+0.84%
64%
−8.66%
The historical average was +0.37%, but the worst outcome was −5.31% against MHI 23.25.
Cautious: the flow trigger is negative, and Market Health remains Bear Market with very high risk.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Confirm
FII cash remains negative after the turn, with DII flow at +₹2,797 Cr.
Watch
Market Health Index (MHI) remains at 23.25 while the phase is Bear Market and weakening.
Break
The read changes if FII cash returns to +₹600 Cr provisional and FII futures recover from -290,546.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
+0.29% close at 23,414.3
+₹2,797 Cr DII flow
137 matches: +0.37% five-day average
Lines up bearish
FII cash −₹576 Cr after +₹600 Cr
FII net index futures -290,546
MHI 23.25; Bear Market, very high risk
Net read: Negative foreign-flow turn, positive close, weak market health.
Foreign money turned to −₹576 Cr, but the +0.29% close does not offset Bear Market health: Market Health Index (MHI) 23.25, weakening, with very high risk.