No. 142 · Friday 18 Sep 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Foreign money turned; Market Health remains in a Bear Market
FII cash buying returned at +₹600 Cr after −₹3,209 Cr, but risk remains Very High.
What happenedThe turn happened: FII cash moved to +₹600 Cr after −₹3,209 Cr. DII was +₹1,020 Cr.
The tensionFII net index futures stood at -288,428, at the 1th percentile of the year. That flow turn sits against a Bear Market phase.
Net readA flow-led recovery signal sits inside a Bear Market with Very High risk.
Nifty Close
23,346.40
+0.33%
Market Phase
🔴 Bear Market
session 2 · ↑ recovering
MHI
30.44
9th %ile
Risk
Very High
confidence 45
FII Idx Fut
−288.4K
1.2th %ile
Walls
23.3–23.4K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
01 | The crowd
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 18 Sep · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: Foreign money turned to cash buying. FII cash was +₹600 Cr after −₹3,209 Cr, with DII at +₹1,020 Cr.
02 The turn
02 | The turn
What this means: The marginal flow shifted on the day. The recovery signal is strongest in cash, while FII index futures remained -288,428.
03 The catch
03 | The catch: Market Health
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 18 Sep · percentiles vs 1,285 sessions
What this means: Trend is Recovering, but phase is Bear Market and risk is Very High. Market Health Index (MHI) is 30.44, at the 8.6 percentile, with 45.0 confidence.
Phase
🔴 Bear Market
risk Very High
Participation
80.2419
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
36.5
31th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
04 | Days like today
The terrain remains a Bear Market despite a Recovering trend. The phase run length is 2.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 67 · tier: exact
Horizon
Avg
Median
Win rate
Worst
Next session
−0.20%
−0.16%
33%
−4.78%
Next 5 sessions
+0.01%
+0.00%
50%
−4.77%
Next 10 sessions
+0.33%
+0.58%
54%
−7.12%
Next 20 sessions
+1.34%
+0.87%
64%
−6.63%
Conditions like today historically favored a 0.01% five-day average outcome across 67 matches, with a -4.77% worst case.
Guarded recovery
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Confirm | Cash buying
FII cash was +₹600 Cr after −₹3,209 Cr, while DII was +₹1,020 Cr.
Watch | Futures overhang
FII net index futures remained -288,428, at the 1th percentile of the year.
Break | Market Health
Bear Market phase and Very High risk remain the central constraint on the Recovering trend.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
FII cash +₹600 Cr after −₹3,209 Cr
DII +₹1,020 Cr
0.01% five-day average across 67 matches
Lines up bearish
FII net index futures -288,428
Bear Market phase
−4.77% five-day worst case across 67 matches
Net read: Cash buying marks a real turn, but the broader read remains a guarded recovery inside a Bear Market.
Foreign money turned through cash buying, but Market Health remains a Bear Market with Very High risk.