The StratLab Daily
No. 141 · Wednesday 16 Sep 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
A green close, but Market Health turns Bear Market.
The index gained 0.43% to close at 23,217.6 as Market Health Index (MHI) moved from 56.8 to 5.2.
What happenedThe index rose 0.43%, while the health phase changed from Transition to Bear Market.
The tensionPrice was positive; Market Health was Weakening, with Very High risk.
Net readA green close arrived alongside a fresh Bear Market phase.
Nifty Close
23,217.60
+0.43%
Market Phase
🔴 Bear Market
session 1 · ↓ weakening
Risk
Very High
confidence 10
FII Idx Fut
−288.1K
0.8th %ile
Walls
23.2–23.3K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
The crowd
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 16 Sep · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: The index closed at 23,217.6, up 0.43%. The price signal was positive, but the health read was not.
02 The turn
The turn
What this means: Market Health Index (MHI) moved from 56.8 to 5.2 as the phase shifted from Transition to Bear Market.
03 The catch
The catch — Market Health
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 16 Sep · percentiles vs 1,284 sessions
What this means: The Market Health Index (MHI) stands at 5.24, with Weakening trend, Very High risk, and confidence at 10.0.
Phase
🔴 Bear Market
risk Very High
Participation
41.129
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
13.7
4th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
Days like today
Terrain: Bear Market · Weakening · Very High risk.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 133 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | +0.13% | +0.11% | 54% | −3.24% |
| Next 5 sessions | +0.40% | +0.26% | 54% | −4.86% |
| Next 10 sessions | +0.54% | +0.34% | 54% | −7.37% |
| Next 20 sessions | +1.20% | +0.80% | 64% | −8.66% |
Conditions like today historically favored a 0.4% average forward 5-day outcome across 133 matches; the worst was -4.86%.
Posture: defensive, with the Bear Market phase at a run length of 1.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
CONFIRM
Bear Market phase · MHI 5.24 · confidence 10.0.
WATCH
Weakening trend · Very High risk · phase run length 1.
BREAK
The health read broke from Transition to Bear Market today.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- Close up 0.43%.
- 133 analog matches produced a 0.4% average forward 5-day outcome.
Lines up bearish
- Bear Market phase.
- Very High risk and Weakening trend.
- Worst analog forward 5-day outcome: -4.86%.
Net read: The tape held positive, but the health regime turned decisively weaker.
The 0.43% gain did not change the message: Market Health moved into Bear Market, with Weakening trend and Very High risk.
Regime
BULL