No. 140 · Tuesday 15 Sep 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
The crowd retreats as Market Health Index (MHI) moves from Bear Market to Transition.
The index fell 1.19% to 23118.6, while the health read improved from MHI 21.2 to 56.8.
What happenedThe index fell 1.19% to 23118.6.
The tensionPrice weakened even as the phase moved from Bear Market to Transition.
Net readThe net read is Transition, with an Improving trend and High risk.
Nifty Close
23,118.60
−1.19%
Market Phase
⚪ Transition
session 1 · ↑ improving
MHI
56.83
38th %ile
Risk
High
confidence 60
FII Idx Fut
−291.1K
0.4th %ile
Walls
23.1–23.2K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
The crowd steps back.
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 15 Sep · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: The close fell 1.19%, putting the session firmly on the defensive.
02 The turn
The turn arrives.
What this means: Market Health moved from Bear Market to Transition, with MHI rising from 21.2 to 56.8.
03 The catch
The catch is High risk.
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 15 Sep · percentiles vs 1,283 sessions
What this means: Market Health Index (MHI) stands at 56.83, with an Improving trend but only 60.0 confidence.
Phase
⚪ Transition
risk High
Participation
60.8871
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
14.7
5th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
Days like today
Conditions like today historically favored a five-day average gain of 0.85%, with a worst outcome of -2.81%.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 56 · tier: exact
Horizon
Avg
Median
Win rate
Worst
Next session
+0.22%
+0.07%
54%
−0.93%
Next 5 sessions
+0.85%
+0.81%
68%
−2.81%
Next 10 sessions
+0.65%
+0.79%
54%
−3.63%
Next 20 sessions
+0.20%
−0.21%
44%
−8.18%
The phase run length is 1, so the turn is fresh.
Cautious transition.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Wire confirm: Transition and Improving trend.
MHI is 56.83.
Wire watch: High risk remains.
Confidence is 60.0, while the MHI percentile is 38.3.
Wire break: the turn fails.
A return to Bear Market would undo the Transition read.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
Transition replaces Bear Market.
The trend is Improving.
Historical five-day average outcome: 0.85%.
Lines up bearish
Risk remains High.
The index fell 1.19%.
Historical worst five-day outcome: -2.81%.
Net read: An improving Transition read meets a weak close, with High risk keeping the posture cautious.
The close fell 1.19% as Market Health turned from Bear Market to Transition. Conditions like today historically favored a 0.85% five-day average gain, but the downside range remains wide.