The StratLab Daily
No. 137 · Wednesday 9 Sep 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Market Health Index (MHI) moved from Weak Downtrend to Bear Market.
The index fell 0.86% to 23,431.5; health now reads Bear Market with Very High risk.
What happenedThe index closed at 23,431.5, down 0.86%.
The tensionWeak Downtrend became Bear Market as MHI moved from 41.2 to 28.3.
Net readBear Market, Weakening trend, Very High risk.
Nifty Close
23,431.50
−0.86%
Market Phase
🔴 Bear Market
session 1 · ↓ weakening
Risk
Very High
confidence 10
FII Idx Fut
−276.2K
1.6th %ile
Walls
23.4–23.5K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
01 | The crowd
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 9 Sep · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: The index closed at 23,431.5 after a 0.86% decline.
02 The turn
02 | The turn
What this means: Weak Downtrend became Bear Market in a single phase change.
03 The catch
03 | The catch | Market Health
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 9 Sep · percentiles vs 1,280 sessions
What this means: MHI is 28.33 at the 7.0 percentile, with Very High risk and a Weakening trend.
Phase
🔴 Bear Market
risk Very High
Participation
53.629
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
31.5
21th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
04 | Days like today
Conditions like today historically favored a +0.44% five-day outcome on average across 131 matches; the worst was -4.86%.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 131 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | +0.14% | +0.11% | 54% | −3.24% |
| Next 5 sessions | +0.44% | +0.32% | 55% | −4.86% |
| Next 10 sessions | +0.57% | +0.37% | 54% | −7.37% |
| Next 20 sessions | +1.25% | +0.84% | 65% | −8.66% |
The historical average was +0.44% over five days across 131 matches, against a -4.86% worst case.
Bear Market | Weakening | Very High risk
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Confirm | Bear Market is now the active phase.
MHI is 28.33; confidence is 10.0.
Watch | The trend is Weakening.
Phase run length is 1.
Break | The historical downside remains visible.
The worst five-day outcome across 131 matches was -4.86%.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- 131 matches averaged +0.44% over five days.
- MHI confidence is 10.0.
Lines up bearish
- Bear Market phase.
- Very High risk.
- MHI percentile: 7.0.
Net read: Health has turned Bear Market while the index is down 0.86%.
The thesis is health-led: Bear Market, Weakening, Very High risk, despite conditions like today historically averaging +0.44% over five days.
Regime
BULL