No. 136 · Tuesday 8 Sep 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Market Health turns less bad, but remains Weak Downtrend
The index closed at 23,635.1, down 0.61%, while Market Health Index (MHI) rose from 33.3 to 41.2. The phase shifted from Bear Market to Weak Downtrend.
What happenedThe phase moved from Bear Market to Weak Downtrend, with trend Recovering and risk High.
The tensionRecovery is visible, but confidence is 45.0 and MHI sits at the 18.9 percentile.
Net readNet: Weak Downtrend, not a clean risk reset.
Nifty Close
23,635.10
−0.61%
Market Phase
🟠 Weak Dntrend
session 1 · ↑ recovering
MHI
41.24
19th %ile
Risk
High
confidence 45
FII Idx Fut
−261.6K
7.7th %ile
Walls
23.6–23.6K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
01 the crowd
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 8 Sep · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: The index fell 0.61% to 23,635.1. The tape was softer even as market health improved.
02 The turn
02 the turn
What this means: Market Health moved from Bear Market to Weak Downtrend. MHI rose from 33.3 to 41.2.
03 The catch
03 the catch (Market Health)
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 8 Sep · percentiles vs 1,279 sessions
What this means: The phase is still Weak Downtrend, with risk High and confidence at 45.0. The recovery signal remains early, with a phase run length of 1.
Phase
🟠 Weak Downtrend
risk High
Participation
51.6129
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
32.1
22th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
04 days like today
Across 33 matches, conditions like today historically favored a softer five-day outcome: average -0.22%, worst -4.84%.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 33 · tier: exact
Horizon
Avg
Median
Win rate
Worst
Next session
+0.22%
+0.14%
58%
−2.11%
Next 5 sessions
−0.22%
−0.42%
44%
−4.84%
Next 10 sessions
−0.35%
+0.22%
50%
−8.48%
Next 20 sessions
+0.01%
−0.20%
39%
−5.18%
Conditions like today historically favored a -0.22% average five-day outcome, with a -4.84% worst result across 33 matches.
The posture is defensive but improving: trend Recovering, phase Weak Downtrend, and risk High.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
CONFIRM
Trend is Recovering, and the phase has moved out of Bear Market.
WATCH
MHI is 41.24, confidence is 45.0, and risk remains High.
BREAK
Weak Downtrend remains in place, with MHI at the 18.9 percentile.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
Trend: Recovering
MHI rose from 33.3 to 41.2
Phase moved from Bear Market to Weak Downtrend
Lines up bearish
Phase: Weak Downtrend
Risk: High
Conditions like today averaged -0.22% over five days
Net read: A health turn has arrived, but the market remains a high-risk Weak Downtrend with historically soft five-day conditions.
The phase transition is constructive, not conclusive: Weak Downtrend and High risk remain, while conditions like today historically favored a -0.22% five-day outcome.