The StratLab Daily
No. 133 · Thursday 3 Sep 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Bear Market to Weak Downtrend; Market Health Index (MHI) 28.2 → 41.1
Close 23,873.45, -0.17% on the day, while market health shifted from Bear Market to Weak Downtrend.
What happenedMarket Health moved from Bear Market to Weak Downtrend.
The tensionPrice closed -0.17% at 23,873.45 while MHI moved from 28.2 to 41.1.
Net readWeak Downtrend with Recovering trend and High risk; MHI 41.08, 18.6 percentile, confidence 45.0.
Nifty Close
23,873.45
−0.17%
Market Phase
🟠 Weak Dntrend
session 1 · ↑ recovering
FII Idx Fut
−235.1K
16.6th %ile
Walls
23.8–24.0K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
The crowd
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 3 Sep · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: Close 23,873.45, return -0.17%.
02 The turn
The turn
What this means: Bear Market → Weak Downtrend; Market Health Index (MHI) 28.2 → 41.1.
03 The catch
The catch (Market Health)
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 3 Sep · percentiles vs 1,276 sessions
What this means: Weak Downtrend, Recovering, High risk; MHI 41.08 at 18.6 percentile, confidence 45.0, run length 1.
Phase
🟠 Weak Downtrend
risk High
Participation
44.2656
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
34.7
26th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
Days like today
Weak Downtrend, Recovering, High risk
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 32 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | +0.22% | +0.20% | 56% | −2.11% |
| Next 5 sessions | −0.22% | −0.42% | 44% | −4.84% |
| Next 10 sessions | −0.27% | +0.50% | 52% | −8.48% |
| Next 20 sessions | +0.01% | −0.20% | 39% | −5.18% |
32 similar conditions; forward five days averaged -0.22%, worst -4.84%.
Recovering trend with high risk.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Confirm
Close 23,873.45 and MHI 41.08 confirm the Weak Downtrend turn.
Watch
MHI 41.08 at 18.6 percentile; a move back toward 28.2 would reverse the phase turn.
Break
Worst analog -4.84% if conditions like today deteriorate.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- Phase upgraded from Bear Market to Weak Downtrend.
- MHI 28.2 → 41.1.
- Trend labeled Recovering.
Lines up bearish
- Risk remains High.
- MHI percentile only 18.6.
- Forward five-day average -0.22%, worst -4.84%.
Net read: Market Health improved from Bear Market to Weak Downtrend, but conditions like today historically favored a five-day average of -0.22%.
Market Health moved from Bear Market to Weak Downtrend with MHI 28.2 → 41.1; price closed 23,873.45, -0.17%.
Regime
BULL