No. 132 · Wednesday 2 Sep 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Weak tape, extreme health reading, but 128 matched days lean positive.
The index closed at 23,914.45, down 0.59%, with Market Health Index (MHI) at 28.25 — 7th percentile.
What happenedThe index closed at 23,914.45, down 0.59%.
The tensionMHI at 28.25 — 7th percentile — sits against 128 matches averaging 0.48% five days out.
Net readWeak health, but conditions like today historically favored a positive short-term drift.
Nifty Close
23,914.45
−0.59%
Market Phase
🔴 Bear Market
session 2 · ↓ weakening
MHI
28.25
7th %ile
Risk
Very High
confidence 10
FII Idx Fut
−229.2K
18.2th %ile
Walls
23.8–24.0K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
The crowd saw a small risk-off close.
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 2 Sep · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: The index closed at 23,914.45, down 0.59%.
02 The turn
The turn is into very weak health.
What this means: Phase is Bear Market, trend weakening, risk very high, phase run length 2.
03 The catch
Market Health Index (MHI) sits at 28.25 — 7th percentile.
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 2 Sep · percentiles vs 1,275 sessions
What this means: Health is in the bottom decile of its own history; extremes this rare usually resolve, not persist.
Phase
🔴 Bear Market
risk Very High
Participation
55.0201
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
29.9
19th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
Days like today lean positive.
Conditions like today historically favored a 0.48% average 5-day return, with a -4.86% worst case.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 128 · tier: exact
Horizon
Avg
Median
Win rate
Worst
Next session
+0.16%
+0.14%
56%
−3.24%
Next 5 sessions
+0.48%
+0.33%
56%
−4.86%
Next 10 sessions
+0.59%
+0.41%
55%
−7.37%
Next 20 sessions
+1.25%
+0.84%
65%
−8.66%
128 matches; 5-day average 0.48%; worst -4.86%.
Defensive; risk very high despite a positive 5-day analog.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Health holds
MHI at 28.25 with 128 matches averaging 0.48% 5-day forward.
Worst-case watch
Matched case worst 5-day return is -4.86%; a move toward that level moves watch to break.
Worst-case break
A 5-day return of -4.86% would equal the historical worst case.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
128 matched days averaged 0.48% five days out.
MHI at 28.25 sits at the 7th percentile; rare extremes often resolve.
Phase run length is 2.
Lines up bearish
MHI is 28.25 — bottom decile.
Trend weakening and risk very high.
Worst 5-day case is -4.86%.
Net read: Net view: historically positive 5-day tilt from 128 matches, but MHI at 28.25 keeps the tape fragile.
The index closed down 0.59% at 23,914.45; Market Health Index (MHI) at 28.25 sits at the 7th percentile. Historically, 128 matched days averaged 0.48% five days out, with a -4.86% worst case.