The StratLab Daily
No. 131 · Tuesday 1 Sep 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Market Health just moved from Weak Downtrend to Bear Market.
Market Health Index (MHI) fell from 42.4 to 29.8; close 24055.8, -0.1%.
What happenedWeak Downtrend → Bear Market
The tensionDaily return only -0.1%; phase run length now 1.
Net readBearish regime, MHI percentile 7.6; 5-session analog average +0.48%.
Nifty Close
24,055.80
−0.10%
Market Phase
🔴 Bear Market
session 1 · ↓ weakening
Risk
Very High
confidence 10
FII Idx Fut
−222.0K
25.1th %ile
Walls
24.1–24.1K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
01 the crowd
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 1 Sep · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: Close 24055.8; daily return -0.1%.
02 The turn
02 the turn
What this means: Market Health moved from Weak Downtrend to Bear Market; MHI 42.4 to 29.8.
03 The catch
03 the catch (Market Health)
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 1 Sep · percentiles vs 1,274 sessions
What this means: MHI 29.76, percentile 7.6, risk Very High, confidence 10.0.
Phase
🔴 Bear Market
risk Very High
Participation
31.7269
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
32.7
23th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
04 days like today
Conditions like today historically favored a +0.48% average over 5 sessions; worst was -4.86% in 127 matches.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 127 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | +0.16% | +0.14% | 56% | −3.24% |
| Next 5 sessions | +0.48% | +0.33% | 56% | −4.86% |
| Next 10 sessions | +0.59% | +0.41% | 55% | −7.37% |
| Next 20 sessions | +1.25% | +0.84% | 65% | −8.66% |
Phase transition, not just index price; run length 1.
Bear Market, Very High risk.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Confirm
127 matches; 5-session average +0.48%.
Watch
5-session worst -4.86%.
Break
MHI 29.76, percentile 7.6, Bear Market.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- 127 matches, 5-session average +0.48%
- Daily return -0.1%
Lines up bearish
- MHI 29.76, percentile 7.6
- Bear Market, risk Very High
- 5-session worst -4.86%
Net read: Bear Market health, but 5-session analog average +0.48%; MHI percentile 7.6 keeps tension.
Market Health moved to Bear Market; MHI 29.76, percentile 7.6, close 24055.8, -0.1%.
Regime
BULL