No. 130 · Monday 31 Aug 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
11 names broke together on volume — the day's coordinated move.
The index closed at 24,080.4, -0.39%; the day's real signal was 11 names breaking on volume.
What happenedThe index closed at 24,080.4, -0.39%, while 11 names broke together on volume.
The tensionA -0.39% index drop masks concentrated positioning changes in 11 names and a Weak Downtrend.
Net readThe day's signal is the 11-name volume cluster, not the index close.
Nifty Close
24,080.40
−0.39%
Market Phase
🟠 Weak Dntrend
session 5 · ↓ weakening
MHI
42.43
19th %ile
Risk
High
confidence 10
FII Idx Fut
−209.3K
30.9th %ile
Walls
—
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
01 — The Crowd
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 31 Aug · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: 11 names broke together on volume. ADANIENSOL -10.4% on 15.4×, ADANIENT -9.8% on 11.7×, and ZEEL -7.8% on 3.0× led the cluster.
02 The turn
02 — The Turn
What this means: Same-day clusters on elevated volume mark where positioning is actually changing, regardless of what the index did.
03 The catch
03 — The Catch (Market Health)
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 31 Aug · percentiles vs 1,273 sessions
What this means: Market Health Index (MHI) is 42.43, 19.3 percentile, inside a Weak Downtrend. Trend is Weakening, risk is High, phase run is 5.
Phase
🟠 Weak Downtrend
risk High
Participation
75.9036
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
41.6
39th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
04 — Days Like Today
Conditions like today historically favored a forward 5-day average of -0.77% across 14 matches, with worst -2.97%.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 14 · tier: exact
Horizon
Avg
Median
Win rate
Worst
Next session
−0.08%
−0.19%
43%
−1.65%
Next 5 sessions
−0.77%
−0.66%
31%
−2.97%
Next 10 sessions
−0.76%
−0.90%
36%
−3.54%
Next 20 sessions
−1.14%
−0.87%
36%
−4.92%
The 14-match analogue prints a -0.77% average 5-day tilt; MHI 42.43 sits at 19.3 percentile with a 5-session phase run.
Weak Downtrend / Weakening / High risk
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Confirms the weak tape
A close below 24,080.4 would confirm the weak trend extension after the -0.39% drop.
Watch the volume cluster
The 11-name group remains the marker; ADANIENSOL -10.4% on 15.4× is the leading observed break.
Breaks the bearish lean
A recovery back above 24,080.4 would challenge the Weak Downtrend, despite MHI 42.43.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
Index drop was only -0.39% despite 11 high-volume breaks.
The damage was name-specific, not index-wide.
Lines up bearish
MHI 42.43 sits in the 19.3 percentile with High risk.
14 matches averaged -0.77% forward 5-day return.
Weak Downtrend is 5 sessions old with trend Weakening.
Net read: A weak index tape with concentrated volume breaks; the 14-match analogue tilts forward 5-day returns negative.
The 11-name volume break occurred inside a Weak Downtrend with Market Health Index (MHI) 42.43; conditions like today historically favored a -0.77% 5-day average over 14 matches.