No. 125 · Monday 24 Aug 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Market Health Index (MHI) 43.1 → 38.7: Weak Downtrend to Bear Market
The index closed at 24,219.05, -0.14% on the day, while the health phase shifted to Bear Market. Conditions like today historically favored a +0.49% average forward 5-day return with a worst case of -4.86%.
What happenedWeak Downtrend → Bear Market; Market Health Index (MHI) 43.1 → 38.7.
The tensionVery High risk and confidence 10.0 sit against a nearly flat -0.14% daily close.
Net readThe health shift carries more weight than the shallow daily move.
Nifty Close
24,219.05
−0.14%
Market Phase
🔴 Bear Market
session 1 · ↓ weakening
MHI
38.66
16th %ile
Risk
Very High
confidence 10
FII Idx Fut
−219.4K
26.5th %ile
Walls
24.2–24.3K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
The crowd
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 24 Aug · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: Index closed 24,219.05, -0.14%; no trigger analog present.
02 The turn
The turn
What this means: Market Health flipped from Weak Downtrend to Bear Market; MHI dropped 43.1 to 38.7.
03 The catch
The catch (Market Health)
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 24 Aug · percentiles vs 1,268 sessions
What this means: MHI 38.66, 15.5th percentile; trend Weakening, risk Very High.
Phase
🔴 Bear Market
risk Very High
Participation
53.6145
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
41.6
39th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
Days like today
Bear Market · Weakening · Very High · MHI 38.66
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 126 · tier: exact
Horizon
Avg
Median
Win rate
Worst
Next session
+0.16%
+0.14%
56%
−3.24%
Next 5 sessions
+0.49%
+0.34%
56%
−4.86%
Next 10 sessions
+0.60%
+0.45%
55%
−7.37%
Next 20 sessions
+1.26%
+0.84%
65%
−8.66%
Forward 5-day average +0.49%; worst -4.86% across 126 matches.
Defensive; Bear Market, Very High risk, MHI 38.66.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Confirm
Close 24,219.05 with -0.14% daily return; no trigger analog present.
Watch
MHI 38.66, 15.5th percentile, phase run length 1.
Break
Forward 5-day worst -4.86% across 126 matches.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
Close kept 24,219.05 despite Bear Market phase
126-match forward 5-day average +0.49%
Daily return -0.14% only
Lines up bearish
Weak Downtrend → Bear Market
MHI 38.66 at 15.5th percentile
Forward 5-day worst -4.86%
Net read: Risk Very High; health phase entering Bear Market with weak daily loss.
Market Health moved from Weak Downtrend to Bear Market; MHI fell 43.1 to 38.7 even as index closed -0.14%.