No. 124 · Friday 21 Aug 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Market Health Index (MHI) drops to 43.1 as phase turns to Weak Downtrend
Transition gave way to Weak Downtrend with high risk; index closed at 24,252, +0.08%.
What happenedPhase shifted from Transition to Weak Downtrend with MHI down from 48.7 to 43.1.
The tensionHealth percentile sits at 19.7 while risk reads high; trend is weakening.
Net readNet health is weak: MHI 43.1, confidence 10.0, phase run length 1.
Nifty Close
24,252.00
+0.08%
Market Phase
🟠 Weak Dntrend
session 1 · ↓ weakening
MHI
43.06
20th %ile
Risk
High
confidence 10
FII Idx Fut
−209.9K
29.7th %ile
Walls
24.2–24.3K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
The crowd
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 21 Aug · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: Benchmark closed at 24,252, up 0.08% on the day.
02 The turn
The turn
What this means: MHI dropped from 48.7 to 43.1 and the phase flipped from Transition to Weak Downtrend.
03 The catch
The catch
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 21 Aug · percentiles vs 1,267 sessions
What this means: Market Health is now Weak Downtrend with high risk; MHI at 43.1 and 19.7 percentile.
Phase
🟠 Weak Downtrend
risk High
Participation
55.8233
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
41.6
39th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
Days like today
Conditions like today historically favored a five-day average of -0.93% across 12 matches; worst analog was -2.97%.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 12 · tier: exact
Horizon
Avg
Median
Win rate
Worst
Next session
−0.11%
−0.27%
42%
−1.65%
Next 5 sessions
−0.93%
−1.08%
27%
−2.97%
Next 10 sessions
−0.76%
−0.90%
36%
−3.54%
Next 20 sessions
−1.14%
−0.87%
36%
−4.92%
This Weak Downtrend is only 1 session old; 12 analog matches skew negative with average -0.93% and worst -2.97%.
Posture reads defensive because the new phase is Weak Downtrend with high risk and health percentile at 19.7.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
MHI reclaims 48.7
A move back above the prior MHI level of 48.7 would challenge the Weak Downtrend phase.
Index holds 24,252
The +0.08% close at 24,252 is the level to watch for early phase rejection.
Five-day slide to -2.97%
A forward move matching the worst analog of -2.97% would confirm downside continuation.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
Index closed positive at 24,252, +0.08%.
Weak Downtrend is only 1 session old with no trigger analog in play.
Prior analog worst of -2.97% is contained relative to the -0.93% average.
Lines up bearish
MHI fell from 48.7 to 43.1 in one session.
Health percentile sits at 19.7 with high risk.
Conditions like today historically favored -0.93% average five-day returns.
Net read: Net view: the +0.08% index close is outweighed by a fresh Weak Downtrend and MHI at 43.1; conditions like today historically favored -0.93% forward five days.
Bottom line: Market Health Index (MHI) shifted to Weak Downtrend at 43.1 with high risk; conditions like today historically favored -0.93% over five days.