The StratLab Daily
No. 123 · Thursday 20 Aug 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Market Health Index (MHI) flips to Transition at 48.68
Close 24,231.85 with a 0.64% gain; health moved from Weak Downtrend to Transition.
What happenedMarket Health Index (MHI) moved from Weak Downtrend to Transition, first day in this phase.
The tensionThe session gained 0.64%, but Market Health Index (MHI) percentile sits at 26.8 with risk High.
Net readImproving health inside a still-high-risk Transition.
Nifty Close
24,231.85
+0.64%
Market Phase
⚪ Transition
session 1 · ↑ improving
FII Idx Fut
−212.1K
28.5th %ile
Walls
24.2–24.3K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
Crowd saw a 0.64% lift.
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 20 Aug · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: Close 24,231.85, up 0.64% on the session.
02 The turn
Turn: Weak Downtrend → Transition.
What this means: Market Health Index (MHI) rose from 41.4 to 48.7; first day in phase.
03 The catch
Catch: improving, but not broad.
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 20 Aug · percentiles vs 1,266 sessions
What this means: Market Health Index (MHI) 48.68, percentile 26.8; risk High; confidence 70.0.
Phase
⚪ Transition
risk High
Participation
53.4137
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
41.6
39th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
Days like today: 55 analogues.
Conditions like today historically favored +0.9% average 5-day; worst -2.81%.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 55 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | +0.22% | +0.05% | 53% | −0.93% |
| Next 5 sessions | +0.90% | +0.82% | 70% | −2.81% |
| Next 10 sessions | +0.71% | +1.12% | 56% | −3.63% |
| Next 20 sessions | +0.36% | −0.04% | 45% | −8.18% |
55 matches; +0.9% average 5-day; -2.81% worst.
Conditions like today historically favored +0.9% average 5-day, with worst -2.81%.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Close 24,231.85 with Market Health Index (MHI) 48.68.
A close at or above 24,231.85 keeps the Transition read intact.
Watch zone: 26.8 percentile.
Health percentile 26.8 is narrow; prior MHI 41.4 is the downside reference.
Break zone: five-day worst -2.81%.
A move below 24,231.85 would erase the 0.64% gain.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- Close 24,231.85, +0.64%
- Market Health Index (MHI) 41.4 → 48.7
- 55 analogues, +0.9% average 5-day
Lines up bearish
- Market Health Index (MHI) percentile 26.8
- Risk High
- Worst analogue -2.81%
Net read: Improved health, narrow percentile, high risk.
Market Health Index (MHI) turned from Weak Downtrend to Transition at 48.68; close 24,231.85 on a 0.64% gain, with no trigger disagreement.
Regime
BULL