The StratLab Daily
No. 121 · Tuesday 18 Aug 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Foreign money turned: cash buying.
NIFTY −0.55% to 24,155. FII positioning is the marginal flow this market trades on; a same-day turn in cash and futures direction is mechanical fuel.
What happenedNIFTY −0.55% to 24,155. Foreign money turned: cash buying.
The tensionMarket Health is Transition at High risk, 29th percentile.
Net readConditions broadly line up with the move.
Nifty Close
24,154.90
−0.55%
Market Phase
⚪ Transition
session 2 · → stable
FII Idx Fut
−194.2K
37.4th %ile
Walls
24.1–24.2K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
Foreign money turned: cash buying.
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 18 Aug · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: FII positioning is the marginal flow this market trades on; a same-day turn in cash and futures direction is mechanical fuel.
02 The turn
What changed today
What this means: FII cash +₹1,652 Cr after −₹2,535 Cr (provisional) · DII +₹2,579 Cr · FII net index futures -194,158 (37th pctile of the year)
03 The catch
Market Health reads Transition
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 18 Aug · percentiles vs 1,264 sessions
What this means: the internals broadly agree with today's move.
Phase
⚪ Transition
risk High
Participation
59.4378
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
46.5
48th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
11 sessions like this one.
Every session sharing today's Market Health signature — transition, High risk — 11 of them on record.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 11 · tier: phase_trend_risk · today's exact signature has no prior occurrence
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | +0.08% | −0.10% | 46% | −0.62% |
| Next 5 sessions | +1.65% | +1.67% | 78% | −3.58% |
| Next 10 sessions | +1.70% | +2.62% | 88% | −8.18% |
| Next 20 sessions | +2.17% | +0.93% | 62% | −3.02% |
This compares today against every session sharing the same Market Health signature, regardless of what triggered it.
Conditions like today historically favored staying with the move.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Market Phase exits upward
Transition runs a median of 1 session(s) (max 9) — this is session 2. 52% of exits went up.
Market Health crosses the 50 midline
Market Health Index (MHI) at 50.6 — a close back above 50 would end the 29th-percentile read.
Phase slips to Bear Market
22.4% of Transition exits went straight to Bear — the conditions analog's worst 5-session outcome (−3.58%) lives on that path.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- Foreign money turned: cash buying.
Lines up bearish
- Market Health 29th percentile · High risk
- Conditions analog: +1.65% avg next 5 · 78% win
Net read: Conditions broadly line up with the move.
Foreign money turned: cash buying. Conditions broadly line up with the move.
Regime
BULL