No. 120 · Monday 17 Aug 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Market Health Moves from Bear Market to Transition
Close 24287.65, -0.32%; the health phase improved but risk remains High.
What happenedThe index fell -0.32% while Market Health shifted from Bear Market to Transition.
The tensionImproving trend versus High risk and 29.7 percentile.
Net readNet read: improved but unconfirmed.
Nifty Close
24,287.65
−0.32%
Market Phase
⚪ Transition
session 1 · ↑ improving
MHI
51.13
30th %ile
Risk
High
confidence 70
FII Idx Fut
−181.6K
49.0th %ile
Walls
24.2–24.4K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
01 · The crowd
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 17 Aug · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: Close 24287.65; day return -0.32%.
02 The turn
02 · The turn
What this means: Market Health moved from Bear Market to Transition; health index 38.9 to 51.1.
03 The catch
03 · The catch: Market Health Index (MHI) 51.13
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 17 Aug · percentiles vs 1,263 sessions
What this means: Transition phase, improving trend, High risk; percentile 29.7, confidence 70.0.
Phase
⚪ Transition
risk High
Participation
56.2249
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
50.4
54th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
04 · Days like today
Conditions like today historically favored +0.9% over 5 sessions, with worst path -2.81%.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 54 · tier: exact
Horizon
Avg
Median
Win rate
Worst
Next session
+0.24%
+0.08%
54%
−0.93%
Next 5 sessions
+0.90%
+0.82%
70%
−2.81%
Next 10 sessions
+0.71%
+1.12%
56%
−3.63%
Next 20 sessions
+0.36%
−0.04%
45%
−8.18%
Phase run length 1; MHI percentile 29.7.
High-risk Transition; no trigger analog.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Transition holds
MHI 51.13 above 38.9; confidence 70.0.
High risk persists
MHI percentile 29.7; day return -0.32%.
Transition fails
MHI back under 38.9, the level it left today.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
MHI 51.13 moved from Bear Market to Transition.
54 analog matches average +0.9% over 5 sessions.
Trend improving; confidence 70.0.
Lines up bearish
Risk High; MHI percentile 29.7.
Worst analog path -2.81%.
Day return -0.32%.
Net read: Improving health inside a High-risk, low-percentile transition.
Market Health left Bear Market for Transition; conditions like today historically favored +0.9% over 5 sessions, but Risk remains High and the worst path was -2.81%.