The StratLab Daily
No. 118 · Thursday 13 Aug 2026 · NSE, data through close
Redesign v5 · One-thesis + Market Health · Real data
Dealers flipped short gamma — moves can now overshoot.
NIFTY −0.16% to 24,396. Positive dealer gamma dampens intraday swings; negative gamma amplifies them. A sign change resets how the index trades.
What happenedNIFTY −0.16% to 24,396. Dealers flipped short gamma — moves can now overshoot.
The tensionMarket Health is Transition at High risk, 26th percentile.
Net readConditions broadly line up with the move.
Nifty Close
24,395.85
−0.16%
Market Phase
⚪ Transition
session 9 · → stable
FII Idx Fut
−168.7K
60.4th %ile
Walls
24.3–24.5K
PE base · CE wall
01 The crowd
Dealers flipped short gamma — moves can now overshoot.
Positioning over the last 20 sessions
FII net index futures · 20 sessions · '000 contracts · endpoint = 13 Aug · source: StratLab participant OI
What this means: Positive dealer gamma dampens intraday swings; negative gamma amplifies them. A sign change resets how the index trades.
02 The turn
What changed today
What this means: Net gamma -14,016 vs +13,148 prior · regime: Stabilizing → Acceleration Risk · near-money IV ≈9%
03 The catch
Market Health reads Transition
Market health over the last 20 sessions
Market Health Index · 20 sessions · 0–100 · endpoint = 13 Aug · percentiles vs 1,261 sessions
What this means: the internals broadly agree with today's move.
Phase
⚪ Transition
risk High
Participation
58.6345
delivery breadth
StratLab Breadth Index
57.0
67th %ile, trailing year
04 Days like today
7 sessions like this one.
Every session sharing today's Market Health signature — transition, High risk — 7 of them on record.
Conditions analog · Phase + Trend + Risk match
n = 7 · tier: exact
| Horizon | Avg | Median | Win rate | Worst |
|---|
| Next session | +0.09% | −0.10% | 43% | −0.62% |
| Next 5 sessions | +2.56% | +2.26% | 100% | +0.78% |
| Next 10 sessions | +2.75% | +2.62% | 100% | +1.04% |
| Next 20 sessions | +1.98% | +0.70% | 50% | −3.02% |
This compares today against every session sharing the same Market Health signature, regardless of what triggered it.
Conditions like today historically favored staying with the move.
05 Tomorrow's tripwires
Three checks that settle the argument
Market Phase exits upward
Transition runs a median of 1 session(s) (max 9) — this is session 9. 53% of exits went up.
Market Health crosses the 50 midline
Market Health Index (MHI) at 48.5 — a close back above 50 would end the 26th-percentile read.
Phase slips to Bear Market
21.1% of Transition exits went straight to Bear — the conditions analog's worst 5-session outcome (+0.78%) lives on that path.
The ledger
Where that leaves us
Lines up bullish
- Dealers flipped short gamma — moves can now overshoot.
Lines up bearish
- Market Health 26th percentile · High risk
- Conditions analog: +2.56% avg next 5 · 100% win
Net read: Conditions broadly line up with the move.
Dealers flipped short gamma — moves can now overshoot. Conditions broadly line up with the move.
Regime
BULL